- SWFX traders are 53% bullish
- 62% of pending orders in 500-pip range are set to BUY the gold
- Gold price falls to 1,246.75
- Upcoming Events: US Average Hourly Earnings, Non-Farm Employment Change, Unemployment Rate
In result of previous trading session the exchange rate has managed to break through the bottom edge of a large descending channel. Due to political in the United States this downward movement most probably will continue.
The US private sector created 190K jobs in November, down strongly from the prior month, but in line with projections, the ADP report indicated, ahead of more comprehensive the US Labour Departments figures to be issued on Friday. Meanwhile, another data showed the revision of the US unit labour costs, which was at an annualised 0.2% rate in the Q3, compared to the initially reported 0.5% rise.
American employment data in focus
At 13:30 GMT the US Department of Labor will simultaneously release information on average earnings and employment change. A combination of these indicators usually causes quite high volatility in the markets. The event will be covered by the Dukascopy Research Team.
XAU/USD finds support at 1,246.74
Even though the exchange rate was moving in a falling wedge formation and was about to reach the bottom trend-line of a medium-term descending channel, the rebound did not happen. Instead, the pair continued to fall to up until the monthly S2 located at 1,246.74. The drop was mainly based on funding bill that was sent to President Trump by the Congress in order to avoid government shutdown. After such rapid appreciation of the buck, in first half of this trading session the yellow metal is expected to recover some lost positions, tending to reach an area near the 1,252.00 mark. However, this recovery might be cancelled in case of release of the better than expected employment data. Moreover, there is a need to take into account an ongoing optimist related to progress on tax reform.
Hourly Chart
Due to political news coming from the United States the exchange rate broke through the bottom boundary of a medium-term descending channel in this way partially confirming an assumption about existence of another larger channel down. As long as traders keep positive outlook for the buck, the pair is expected to continue heading downwards.
Daily Chart
Markets sentiment remain bullish
Traders of Dukascopy are neutral on valuation of the gold, as 53% of open positions are long. Accordingly, 53% of pending commands are to buy the commodity.
OANDA traders are bullish, as 71% (-1%) of open positions are long, compared to previous trading day. In the meantime, SAXO bank traders are less bullish, as 66% (+1%) of open positions are long.