- SWFX market sentiment is 52% bearish
- 51% of pending orders in 100-pip range are set to BUY
- 50% of traders are bearish on the Dollar
- Upcoming Events: US Crude Oil Inventories, Trump visits China
The common European currency is continuing to trade against the Dollar in junior descending channel. A pressure from the slipping moving averages suggests that the any attempts of the pair to surge above 1.1625 are doomed to failure.
The EUR/USD exchange rate continued to increase on the US JOLTS report on Monday. The release caused 20% volatility in the pair, where the Euro lost 3 base points against the US Dollar, but kept recovering in an attempt to enter the 1.1600 area again. The bullish sentiment was fuelled additionally by the Fed's Yellen speech in the evening.
The JOLTS report showed that demand for workers in the US remained solid, with 6.1M job openings registered in September. The job opening rate, as well as pace of hiring were unchanged at 4% and 3.6%, respectively. Despite the recent hurricanes' fallout, levels were steady, indicating the resilient labour market. However, nearly 1.7M people were laid off or fired in September, compared with 1.5M a year ago.
No significant data releases
Except for the weekly update on volume of US Crude Oil Inventories, there are no other important data releases scheduled for today. For this reason, the real impact of valuation of the Dollar today might have Donald Trump's visit to China.
EUR/USD trades near 1.16 amid Chinese data release
In line with expectations, the currency exchange rate continued to move in southern direction under pressure from the 55-hour SMA. A short dip below the weekly S1 located at the 1.1573 level as well as the subsequent recovery signified two confirmation points, thus confirming existence of a fully-fledged junior descending channel. As the upper-trend line of the pattern is additionally protected by the slipping 100- and 200-hour SMAs, the pair is not expected to make a sudden breakout to the north. Accordingly, today the exchange rate is expected to test an area near the 1.1555 mark, which might represent a notable support barrier. The average market sentiment, which remains 58% bearish, confirms this general direction. However, the above assumption might be altered due to beginning of Trump visit to China.
Hourly Chart
The slope that consists of two highs formed on October 25 and November 2 is continuing to impede the Euro from more active recovery against the Dollar. Unless the pair receives an upside momentum from some fundamental event, the pair most likely will continue to move to the bottom in a pattern reminding falling wedge formation.
Daily Chart
Traders remain bearish
In result of the previous trading session the bearish market sentiment slightly decreased, as 52% of open positions are short now.
In the meantime, the outlook for the two currencies against the rest of the traded financial instruments is the following: the Euro is 60% bearish and the Dollar is 50% bearish.
Traders of OANDA remain bearish, as 62% (+1%) of open positions are short. Meanwhile, SAXO are neutrally bearish on this currency pair with 53% (+2%) of open short positions.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility