XAU/USD tests ascending channel

Source: Dukascopy Bank SA

Positions Today Yesterday % Change
Longs 54% 55% -1.85%
Shorts 46% 45% 2.17%
Indicator 4H 1D 1W
MACD (12; 26; 9) Sell Sell Buy
RSI (14) Neutral Neutral Neutral
Stochastic (5; 3; 3) Neutral Sell Neutral
Alligator (13; 8; 5) Sell Sell Buy
SAR (0.02; 0.2) Sell Buy Buy
Aggregate

Due to release of better than expected data on import prices and industrial production the buck appreciated quite sharply against the gold and has practically reached the bottom boundary of a medium ascending channel.  

From daily perspective it seems that bears are going to try to drag the pair to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 1,278.96. On hourly chart such scenario is supported by the 200-hour SMA, which is now located above the current market price. 

However, in order to reach that target the rate has to pass through a combined support set up by the above channel's boundary and the weekly S1. 

Although the average market sentiment is 61% bullish, it is unlikely that this support will manage to turn around the exchange rate (unless some unexpected fundamental event will occur).

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