- SWFX traders are 51% bearish
- 72% of pending orders in 500-pip range are set to SELL the gold
- Pair reaches weekly S1 at 1,266.63
- Upcoming Events: US Average Hourly Earnings, Non-Farm Employment Change, Unemployment Rate
In result of a rebound which matched with a speech delivered by Governor Powell, the plunged to the weekly S1 at 1,266.63. Although a short rebound is likely to follow, but in general the pair is expected to continue to move to the south to finally reach the bottom trend-line of a dominant ascending channel.
The US companies slashed hiring to the lowest level in 11 months in September owing to the disruption of business activities caused by Hurricanes Irma and Harvey, according to the ADP Employment report. The private survey showed that the country's businesses added 135K jobs in September, suggesting the most of Hurricane's impact forced small retailers to cut hiring.
US labor market in focus
In the middle of the day, at 12:30 GMT, the Bureau of Labour Statistics will simultaneously publish an update on the US Average Hourly Earnings, Non-Farm Employment Change, and Unemployment Rate. Although, this release usually provokes certain anxiety in the markets, it is unlikely to change the general picture.
XAU/USD continues to plunge
In accordance with expectations, the yellow metal managed to restore some lost positions against the buck yesterday. However, this surge lasted only until the pair hit the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, which matched with beginning of Governor Powell's speech. In result of the downfall, the pair approached the weekly S1, which is located at the 1,266.63 level. Although the first attempt to break to the bottom was not successful, eventually the pair is expected to bypass this barrier. Not only because the northern path is now secured by a combination of the 55-hour and 100-day SMAs, but also because the rate is moving in a medium-term downtrend, which should lead it to the bottom trend-line of a dominant, long-term ascending channel.
Hourly Chart
From daily perspective, yesterday's trading session did not bring any surprises. In contrast, the pair expectedly failed to break above the 61.8% retracement level and continued to move to the bottom. Accordingly, today bears are going to try to test the weekly S1. In this sense, a release of the US employment data might play a decisive role. A better than expected result will allow to end this trading week below the 1,266.00 mark, while worse than expected push the rate back to the 100-day SMA.Daily Chart
Markets sentiment becomes neutral
Traders of Dukascopy remain neutrally bearish on valuation of the gold, as 51% of open positions are short. In the meantime, 51% of pending commands are to sell the commodity.
OANDA Gold traders are bullish, as 65% (+1%) of open positions are long, compared to previous trading session. In the meantime, SAXO bank traders are similarly bullish, as 70% (+2%) of open positions are also long.