Gold might reach 1,315 soon

Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
  • SWFX traders are 55% bearish
  • 56% of pending orders are set to SELL
  • Closest support below 1,315 mark
  • Upcoming Events: Empty day

The yellow metal's price just recently fell below a significant support level, which indicates at a continuation of the decline of the bullion. Judging by various factors, it is forecasted by the Dukascopy team that the metal's price is set to fall as low as 1,315 in the near future.

Data release on Wednesday showed that the US non-manufacturing activity accelerated over the course of August.  

The Institute for Supply Management reported that its PMI for the US non-manufacturing sector posted weaker-than-expected increase to 55.3 in August, following the prior month's figure of 53.9. An expansion was fuelled by strong increase in new orders and employment, suggesting the weaker job growth registered last month was temporary. Data indicated the US economy is set to gather momentum early in the Q3.

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Empty day



Today economic calendar does not contain any fundamental data releases, which could influence the price of the yellow metal. Due to that reason it remains a technical and political trading day. If the policis keep quiet, then the bullio will decline, as forecasted.



XAU/USD set for more losses

The bearish scenario came true on Monday for the yellow metal. The bullion's price fell below the 1,330 mark in the second half of the day's trading session. 

If one looks at the hourly chart, a marvelous sight appears, as the metal faces no support as low as the 1,312.43 level on Tuesday morning. However, that is not likely going to be the support, which stops the decline of the commodity price.

It is more likely that the bullion will continue in the angle, in which it has been declining for the past few trading sessions, until it reaches the support of the dominant channel up pattern somewhere between 1,315 and 1,320.

Hourly Chart

In accordance with the pattern theory perspective, the gold made a rebound from a resistance line of long-term ascending channel (or medium rising wedge) and started to move in the opposite direction.  

From this perspective, now the price of yellow metal should be driven by bears, who will try to drag it at least until the 61.80% Fibonacci retracement level at 1,278.96. That level is set to be reached only in the upcoming weeks. However, it was supported this week by the weekly S1 and the 55 and 100-day SMAs, just near the 1,270 mark.

Daily Chart



Markets sentiment remains bearish

Traders of Dukascopy remain bearish on the price of gold, as 55% of open positions are short. Meanwhile, 56% of pending commands are to buy the commodity.

OANDA Gold traders remain neutral, as open positions are 51% bullish. In the meantime, SAXO bank traders are also neutrally bullish, as 52% of open positions are long.


Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility

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