- SWFX traders are 55% bearish
- 51% of pending orders in 800-pip range are set to SELL
- Signifficant resistance at 1,339.42
- Upcoming Events: FOMC Member Brainard, Kashkari and Kaplan Speak, US Factory Orders m/m
Yesterday the exchange rate unsuccessfully tried to break through the weekly R1 at 1,339.42 Even though these attempts failed, the pair is expected to make at least one more try, using a support provided by the approached 55-hour SMA.
The Labour Department revealed that the US marked an increase of 156K new jobs over the course of August, which was below expectations, but strong enough to keep the country's economy growing at a steady pace. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate rose to 4.4% from 4.3% in the same period. Despite moderation in the labour market, data showed nothing that could undermine the Fed's intention to start trimming its balance sheet.
FOMC Members' speeches
Generally, this Tuesday is lacks any significant macroeconomic data releases. On the other, traders are advised to closely follow the BRICS summit, which is expected to reveal certain plans, for instance, about the further development of the New Development Bank. In the meantime, traders can also watch Governors' Brainard, Kashkari and Kaplan speech. However, none of them are expected to cause any anxiety of volatility in the markets.
XAU/USD fails to break above 1,339.40
In line with expectations, a resistance set up by the weekly PP at 1,339.42 together with the upper edge of a medium-term ascending channel neutralized the further surge of the bullion. An aggregate of technical indicators suggests that the rise will continue due to pressure from the upcoming 55- and 100-hour SMAs. While this might be true, the northern path remains obstructed not only by the above weekly PP but also by the monthly R1 at 1,348.36 and the weekly R2 at 1,352.71. In this sense, the further flat movement at least in the first half of Tuesday seems a more likely scenario.
Hourly Chart
From a daily perspective, the pair is still expected to try to reach the upper edge of the pattern even if in the short run it will make rebound. Despite that the last two days the pair ended up in a red zone, the above projection remains the same.Daily Chart
Markets sentiment remains bearish
Traders of Dukascopy remain bearish on the price of gold, as 55% of open positions are short. Accordingly, the same percentage of pending commands is to buy the commodity. Moreover, 43% of pending orders are set to sell the buck.
OANDA Gold traders remain neutral, as open positions are 51% bearish. In the meantime, SAXO bank traders are neutrally bearish, as 56% of open positions are short.