- SWFX market sentiment is 60% bearish
- 52.91% of pending orders in 100-pip range are set to sell
- Pair opened Friday's session at 1.1871
- Upcoming Events: US Average Hourly Earnings; US Non-Farm Employment Change; US Unemployment Rate
On Friday morning the common European currency was piercing the second weekly resistance, which was located at the 1.1880 mark. If the surge continues, the lone trend line of the long term ascending channel pattern will be the only resistance before the cluster of significance, which is located near the 1.1975 mark.
The Institute of Supply Management reported that its Non- Manufacturing PMI dropped more than anticipated to 53.9 points in July after rising to 57.4 in the previous month. Weak recent reports are set to discourage the Federal Reserve to make one more rate hike this year and keep the Greenback biased downwards. In addition, the NFP report on Friday is more likely to disappoint forecasts, while wage component would determine whether higher interest rates are allowable.
US employment data
Market participants will watch the release of a US employment data package at 12:30 GMT. It will consist of US Average Hourly Earnings, US Non-Farm Employment Change and the US Unemployment Rate. The data release will be covered by the Dukascopy Research Team on the bank's live webinar platform.
EUR/USD stuck at 1.1880
Second half of the previous trading session the currency exchange rate spent in an expected advance towards the closest resistance level formed by the weekly R2 at 1.1878. An especially high impulse was provided shortly after release of information on the US Non-Manufacturing PMI that did not justify experts' expectations. For the moment, it is not clear yet, whether the pair will continue the surge or fall out from the wedge. On the one hand, a four-hourly chart shows that the rate has been soaring precisely along the pattern's southern boundary. In addition, a number of technical indicators reveal that the pair has not become overbought yet. On the other hand, narrowing fluctuations of the rate more and more remind formation on an inner ascending triangle with the upper trend-line located near the 1.1883 level.
Hourly Chart
The daily chart reveals that the resistance at 1.1880 has been pierced more than once. It is actually the resistance of the long term ascending channel pattern. Previously it held its ground, as it was supported by other resistance levels. However, on Friday it was a lone level of significance, as it had moved higher and left the weekly R2. In addition, the upper Bollinger band had moved higher to strengthen the third weekly resistance at 1.1980 level.
Daily Chart
SWFX traders are not changing positions
The situation in the SWFX markets remains unchanged, as SWFX traders are 60% short in regard to the EUR/USD pair. The proportions of the positions have not changed for five consecutive trading sessions. Meanwhile, 56.99% of trader set up pending commands are to buy the Euro, which is a change from the almost neutral set ups during the rest of the week.
Traders of OANDA remain bearish, as 65.75% of open positions are short. Meanwhile, SAXO bank clients are also not changing their opinion, as 63.49% of traders are short, compared to 62.52% previously.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility