- SWFX market sentiment is 58% bearish
- Trader pending orders 53% bullish
- Pair opened Thursday's session at 1.1351
- Upcoming Events: ADP Non-Farm Employment Change; US Unemployment Claims; ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
On Thursday morning the common European currency had regained some ground against the US Dollar, as it was expected. However, the currency pair remained in the descending channel pattern, which was recently discovered. Most likely the currency exchange rate will continue the decline.
New orders for US-made goods declined more than estimated for the second consecutive month in May, a worrisome sign for the manufacturing industry. The US Commerce Department reported on Wednesday that the country's factory orders dropped 0.8% month-over-month in May, following a downwardly revised 0.3% fall registered in April. Meanwhile, analysts anticipated new orders to show a smaller decline of 0.5%. On a yearly basis, factory orders were up 4.8%, suggesting that US manufacturing activity continued to expand at a moderate pace.
Various US data sets
On Thursday there are three data sets scheduled to be released at various times, which should be looked at by market participants. The first to be published data set is the most important. The ADP Non-Farm Employment Change will be out at 12:15 GMT. The release will be covered by the Dukascopy Research team on the live webinar platform of the bank. Fifteen minutes afterwards, at 12:30 GMT, the weekly US Unemployment Claims will be published. Later on in the day, at 14:00 GMT, the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI will be released. However, both of these releases in the past have not shown enough strength to cause volatility in the markets.
EUR/USD remains below 1.1350 mark
The common European currency is trading against the US Dollar as expected. The pair surged on Wednesday and hit the resistance put up by the 55-hour SMA just above the 1.1350 mark. As a result of that, a retreat began, which has been stalled by the support of the monthly PP at the 1.1331 level. However, the pair is still set to decline due to various reasons. First of all the 55-hour SMA continues to move lower, as it is strengthening the resistance of the weekly PP. Secondly, the currency exchange rate has passed the support of the 200-hour SMA, which on Thursday morning was providing resistance. Moreover, the 200-hour SMA near the 1.1340 level managed to hold off any attempted rebounds by the Euro against the Greenback. Due to that a fall down to the 1.1250 mark can be expected.
Hourly Chart
In regards to the daily chart, there are additional comments that have to be made. First of all the upper Bollinger band has moved up to the 1.1460 level, and it is likely going to continue to free up the range for a surge. Meanwhile, the 20-day SMA has joined the weekly S1 in providing support at the 1.1251 mark. Other notable simple moving averages are too far away from the pair to be worth mentioning.
Daily Chart
Bearish sentiment persists
The situation in the SWFX markets remains almost unchanged, as traders remain 58% bearish with that amount of open positions being short. Meanwhile, 53% of trader set up orders are to buy the Euro.
Traders of OANDA have continued to decrease their bearish position proportion, as 66.98% of open positions are short on Thursday, compared to 67.50% previously. Meanwhile, SAXO bank clients have not changed their opinion, as 66.03% of open positions are short.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Average forecast shows EUR/USD will trade above 1.1250 in October
Traders, who were questioned on their longer-term views on EUR/USD between June 6 and July 6, expect, on average, that the currency exchange rate may trade above 1.12 during the first week of October. In general, 65% (+1%) of participants believe the exchange rate will be above 1.12 in the following ninety days. Meanwhile, 31% of respondents expect to see the rate below 1.10.