- SWFX market sentiment is 64% bearish
- Trader pending orders 58% bullish
- Pair opened Thursday's session at 1.1377
- Upcoming Events: US Final GDP; US Unemployment Claims
In the most recent speech of the ECB President he attempted to quell the surge of the Euro against other currencies by stating that he was misunderstood. However, that had only a minor effect. The common European currency is continuing its surge against the US Dollar, as the pair has pierced the last resistance near the 1.14 mark. Due to that fact a gradual climb up to the levels near the 1.1550 mark is expected.
Pending home sales in the United States dropped for the third consecutive month in May, official figures revealed on Wednesday. The National Association of Realtors reported that pending home sales fell 0.8% last month, following April's downwardly revised drop of 1.7% and falling behind market analysts' expectations for an increase of 0.9%. According to Wednesday's data, supply shortages mainly drove the fall. The supply of homes available for sale dropped more than 8% year-over-year in May.
US Final GDP
As the speeches have shook the markets on Wednesday, more or less a calmer situation is to be expected on Thursday. The US Final GDP and the US Unemployment Claims will be published at 12:30 GMT. The data release will be covered by the Dukascopy research team in real time on the bank's webinar platform.
EUR/USD reaches above 1.14 mark
On Thursday morning the common European currency scored new heights against the US Dollar, as the currency pair managed to break a strong resistance cluster. The mentioned resistance cluster consists of the 23.60% Fibonacci retracement level at the 1.1388 mark and the first monthly resistance at 1.1395. As the cluster was broken, it has begun to provide support to the Euro in its efforts against the Greenback. The currency exchange rate is set to reach new heights soon, as the central banker forum has ended, and technical are once more viable to be used for guidance. From a technical perspective the EUR/USD pair faces no resistance up to the 1.1546 level, where the second monthly resistance level is located at. That means that a range of almost 150 base points is clear.
Hourly Chart
The daily chart shows that the surge is set to continue as far as the 1.1550 mark. At that level the upper trend line of the two and a half year downwards aimed channel pattern is located at. Coincidentally, at that level the second monthly resistance is located at. Meanwhile, the Bollinger bands are no longer viable for analysis, as they have been massively bent by
Daily Chart
Bearish sentiment persists
SWFX traders remain bearish, as 64% of open positions are short. Meanwhile, trader set up orders are clearly bullish, as 58% of pending commands are to buy the Euro.
Traders of OANDA have increased their bearish position proportion, as 72.28% of open positions are short on Thursday, compared to 71.83% previously. In addition, SAXO bank clients are also bearish, as 65.28% of open positions are short, compared to 63.41% on Wednesday.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Average forecast shows EUR/USD will trade above 1.12 in late September
Traders, who were questioned on their longer-term views on EUR/USD between May 29 and June 29, expect, on average, that the currency exchange rate may trade near 1.12 during the last week of September. In general, 62% (+2%) of participants believe the exchange rate will be above 1.12 in the following ninety days. Meanwhile, 32% (-2%) of respondents expect to see the rate below 1.10.