- SWFX traders remain bearish with 55% of open positions being short
- 56% of pending commands are to buy the bullion
- The metal's price opened the day's trading at 1,247.05
- Upcoming Events: US Current Account; FOMC Member Kaplan's Speech
As it was expected, the metal's price has fallen below 1,245 mark. However, the main goal of analysis at the moment has become to find the point of rebound. The reason for that is the fact that the pair has reached a zone, which is located close by to the lower trend line of the long term ascending channel pattern.
US homebuilding activity rose slowed unexpectedly last month, official figures revealed on Friday. The Commerce Department reported that housing starts fell 5.5% to a seasonally adjusted annual pace of 1.09M units, the lowest since September 2016, following the preceding month's downwardly revised pace of 1.16M and falling behind analysts' expectations for decline to 1.23M-unit pace. On an annual basis, homebuilding dropped 2.4%.
US Current Account and minor speech
There are two minor events scheduled for the day. Both events will affect the financial markets by changing the perspective on the US Dollar. However, a notable impact is most unlikely. First will be the release of the US Current Account at 12:30 GMT. Secondly, later in the day, at 19:00 GMT, FOMC Member Kaplan will give a speech, which might touch the topic of monetary policy.
Gold finds support
On the hourly charts, which are drawn by the Dukascopy analysts, it can be observed that the weekly S1 at 1,243.59 has done its job in providing support to the yellow metal's price. However, the commodity price has still not reached the lower trend line of the long term ascending channel pattern. On Tuesday morning and throughout the rest of the day the trend line is set to remain below the 1,240 mark, which means that the price could still decline. In addition, the 55-hour SMA is approaching the bullion from the upside near the 1,250 mark. The simple moving average could provide the needed force to push the price lower. On the other hand the metal could continue to trade almost flat and also reach the mentioned trend line.
Hourly Chart
The daily chart shows that, in addition to the already described support levels, there are more. The lower Bollinger band was located at the 1,242 mark on Tuesday morning. Meanwhile, the 200-day SMA was fluctuating at the 1,240 level. However, the 200-day simple moving average was clearly located below the lower trend line of the long term ascending channel pattern.Daily Chart
SWFX traders contradict others
SWFX traders remain bearish, as 55% of open positions remain short since Friday. Meanwhile, 56% of trader set up orders are to buy the metal.
OANDA Gold traders have increased their bullish outlook, as open positions are 61.41% long on Tuesday, compared to 56.33% on Monday. Meanwhile, traders of SAXO have also been buying the metal, as 58.39% of open positions are long. Previously 52.96% of the bank's traders were long.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Market participants foresee the price of gold being above 1,300 in three months
Traders who were asked regarding their longer-term views on gold during the last month expect, on average, to see the metal around 1,310 in the second half of September. Generally, 38% of participants believe the price will be above 1,350 in ninety days. Meanwhile, an astonishing 27% (-1%) are voting for tight range between the 1,300 and 1,350 levels.