- SWFX traders are 51% bearish
- 71% of pending orders are to buy the metal
- The bullion opened at 1,256.12
- Upcoming Events: US Core Durable Goods Orders; US Preliminary GDP; Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment
Just like the rest of the markets, which have not had many influences during the Trump Tour of 2017, the yellow metal's price remains near the levels, where it started the week. However, the weeklong speculated surge of the bullion's price is still in force, as various factors indicate that the markets are expecting for a sign to start buying.
The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits rose less than expected last week, official data showed on Thursday. The Labour Department reported that initial jobless claims rose 1K to 234% in the week ended May 19, following the preceding week's upwardly revised 233K. Meanwhile, market analysts anticipated an increase of 5K to 238K during the reported week. That marked the 116th of claims remaining below the 300K level, the longest stretch since 1973.
US data release at 12:30 GMT
Friday this week is the only day, when market participants should watch the economic calendar. The reason for that is the fact that there will be a data pack released in the US at 12:30 GMT. It will consist of the US Core Durable Goods Orders and most important the US Preliminary GDP. The data release will be covered by the Dukascopy Research Team on the bank's live webinar platform. In addition, at 14:00 GMT the Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment is set to be released.
Gold fails to surge above 1,260
On Friday morning the yellow metal's price remained below the 1,260 mark, as it failed to reach for the levels near the 1,270 level. However, during Thursday's and Friday's trading the commodity price did not need to retreat for support of the cluster near the 1,250 mark. Which means that a bullish momentum persists in the bullion. Moreover, the 55-day SMA seems to be moving away from the mentioned support cluster to provide support higher. These small factors combined allow to keep in force the forecast of the yellow metal reaching the 1,270 mark in the near future.
Daily chart
The hourly chart shows that the yellow metal is already bending the upper Bollinger band and heading for the levels near the 1,270 mark. However, there is a still unconfirmed trend line on its way near the 1,263 level. That level should be watched for a possible rebound. Although, as on a much larger timeframe the recent movements are a rebound from a massive channel, the trend line should be broken.
Hourly chart
Neutral opinion can be observed
SWFX market sentiment remains unchanged, as 51% of open positions are short. However, 71% of pending commands are to buy the bullion.
OANDA Gold traders remain bullish, as open positions are 63.59% long on Friday, compared to 65.39% previously. Meanwhile, traders of SAXO bank are agreeing with the SWFX traders, as 50.26% of open positions are long, compared to 50.28% positions on Thursday.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Market participants foresee the price of gold being near 1,350 in late August
Traders who were asked regarding their longer-term views on gold between April 26 and May 26 expect, on average, to see the metal just below 1,350 by September. Generally, 48% (-1%) of participants believe the price will be above 1,350 in ninety days. Meanwhile, 35% (+1%) of those surveyed reckon the metal will trade in the range between 1,200 and 1,350 over the next three months.