- SWFX traders are 54% bearish
- 64% of pending commands are to buy the metal
- The bullion opened at 1,268.84
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Upcoming Events: ECB Minimum Bid Rate; ECB Press Conference, US Core Durable Goods Orders; US Unemployment Claims; US Pending Home Sales
On Thursday morning the bullion remained above the weekly S2, as it had been forced down by a significant resistance. The bullion's near future is quite unclear, as its price is dictated by various politics and fundamental events in the world. Due to that fact the metal has two simultaneous scenarios possible, which both are possible.
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index dropped more than experts estimated. In April, it lost 3.8% and reached 120.3, thus, marking the first decline since January. The fall was mainly attributable to the less optimistic view of business conditions and the labour market in the upcoming six months. As a result, the number of respondents, who evaluated business conditions as "good", decreased from 32.4% to 30.2% and the share of those, who assessed the available number of jobs in the market as "plentiful", plunged from 31.8% to 30.8%. In addition, the number of people who evaluated business conditions as "bad" increased slightly from 13.1% to 13.8%.
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Upcoming events: ECB and US data
Thursday is set to be a busy day for fundamental events. At the top of it all is the ECB rate announcement at 11:45 GMT and the following ECB press conference at 12:30 GMT. Simultaneously with the start of the conference the US Core Durable Goods Orders and Unemployment Claims data sets will be published in the US. Moreover, at 14:00 GMT the US Pending Home Sales data will be out. The ECB rate publication will be covered by the Dukascopy research tam on the live webinar.
Read More: Fundamental Analysis
Gold fluctuates above 1,265 level
The yellow metal remained near previous session's opening level on Thursday morning, as the commodity price ran into resistance during the last hours of Wednesday's trading. The bullion is most likely going to find support in the weekly S2, which is located at the 1,263.56 level. The weekly S2 managed to provide enough support to keep the metal's price higher in the past two trading sessions. However, as the yellow metal rebound, it is set to face the resistance put up by the 20-day SMA at 1,271.25 level.
Daily chart
On the hourly chart it can be observed that the yellow metal has once more retreated to the weekly S2, and it is in the process of a rebound. However, due to the fact that the 55-hour SMA has proven itself as a strong resistance level, and it is moving in from the upside, it is possible that the weekly S2 will be passed after all.Hourly chart
Read More: Technical Analysis
Bulls show dominance
Traders remain bearish on the pair, as 54% of open positions are short. However, 64% of pending commands are set to buy the metal.
OANDA Gold traders are bullish regarding the metal, as open positions are 58.09% long on Thursday, compared to 59.15% previously. Meanwhile, traders of SAXO bank are also bullish, as 61.13% of open positions are long, compared to 62.29% positions on Wednesday.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Market participants foresee the price of Gold being above 1,300 in July
© Dukascopy Bank SATraders who were asked regarding their longer-term views on gold between March 27 and April 27 expect, on average, to see the metal near 1,300 in July. Generally, 57% (+2%) of participants believe the price will be above 1,300 in ninety days. Alongside, 33% (-1%) of those surveyed reckon the metal will trade in the range between 1,100 and 1,300 over the next three months.