- SWFX market sentiment is 51% bullish
- Trader pending orders are 56% bearish
- Pair opened Thursday's session at 1.0667
-
Upcoming Events: US PPI; US Unemployment Claims; US Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment
A surprise has occurred and forced the rebound of the Euro against the US Dollar to occur much stronger and faster than it was expected previously. The reason is Donald Trump, who has given an interview to the Wall Street Journal, in which he revealed that he wants to see the US Dollar lower and that he blames himself for its strength.
The mood among German investors improved markedly in April amid strong economic growth in the Q1 and easing concerns over the US President Donald Trump's protectionist policies. The Mannheim-based ZEW Institute reported on Tuesday that its Economic Sentiment Index jumped to 19.5, the highest level since August 2015, from 12.8 points seen in March, while analysts anticipated a slight increase to 13.2. Despite Trump's latest border tax threats, the German car industry reported that it started the year with solid growth. Moreover, figures released last week showed that both German industrial production and trade surplus soared in February.
Watch More: Dukascopy TV
Upcoming events: Various US data
During Thursday's trading session there are various data releases occurring, which are set to affect in various degrees the strength of the US Dollar and subsequently the financial markets. At 12:30 GMT the US PPI and Unemployment Claims will be published. This data release will be covered by the Dukascopy research team live on the bank's webinar platform. Later in the day, at 14:00 GMT, the Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment will be published. However, this data release rarely causes volatility in the markets.
Read More: Fundamental Analysis
Euro jumps against Greenback
The common European currency traded above the 1.0650 mark against the US Dollar on Wednesday morning, as the currency exchange rate was approaching the monthly PP, which was located at the 1.0686 level. The pair traded a lot higher and had surged on Wednesday due to comments made by the President of the US Donald Trump, who remarked that he would like to see the Greenback weaker for the purpose of stimulating exports. The rate is most likely going to pass the resistance of the monthly PP and begin to move higher. Afterwards the next resistance is the weekly R2 at 1.0729 mark.
Daily chart
The hourly chart reveals additional information regarding the jump of the Euro against the US Dollar. The jump of the currency exchange rate did not occur during the scheduled speech, which began at 10:00 GMT. It occurred during the President's interview with the Wall Street Journal at 19:00 GMT. However, as many had already noticed, a rebound had already begun to form itself. Also volatility had disappeared, which could be seen on the hourly chart, by observing the Bollinger bands.Hourly chart
Read More: Technical Analysis
SWFX traders remain undecided
SWFX trades have not changed their opinion, as 51% of open positions are long. However, 56% of trader set up orders are to buy.
OANDA traders have decreased their bullish outlook, as 55.750% of trader open positions are long on Thursday, compared to 60.70% previously. Meanwhile, SAXO bank clients remain almost neutral, as 52.09% of open positions are long now, compared to the 51.98% short positions on Tuesday.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Average forecast says EUR/USD will trade around 1.08 in July
© Dukascopy Bank SATraders, who were questioned on their longer-term views on EUR/USD between March 13 and April 13 expect, on average, the currency pair to trade around 1.08 at the start of July. In general, 46% (+3%) of participants believe the exchange rate will be generally above 1.08 in ninety days, and 25% (+1%) see it above 1.12. In the meantime, 9% of those surveyed reckon the pair will be at parity or below.