- SWFX market sentiment is 63% bearish
- Trader pending orders are 51% bearish
- Pair opened Wednesday's session at 1.0812
- Upcoming Events: FOMC Member Evans's Speech; US Pending Home Sales
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index increased significantly despite experts' pessimistic forecasts. In March, it gained 8% and reached 125.6, which is the highest value since December 2000. Therefore, the number of consumers who evaluated business conditions as "good" rose from 28.3% to 32.2%. Moreover, the number of consumers who believed that there was "enough" job offers in the market also climbed from 26.9% to 31.7%. Accordingly, the number people who evaluated business conditions as "bad" decreased from 13.4% to 12.9%. In addition, the number of people who were experiencing "difficulties" finding a job slightly diminished from 19.9% to 19.5%.
Altogether, this mean that consumers believe that the current economic conditions have improved and that they are ready to increase their spending and investments. This also suggests that people are more optimistic about the near-term economic situation. For instance, the number of consumers who suggested that business conditions would improve even more in the next six months soared from 23.9% to 27.1%. At the same time, the number of consumers who suggested that more jobs would be created in the next six months also nudged from 20.9% to 24.8%.
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Upcoming events: FOMC and pending home sales
Wednesday's trading session is also set to be a quiet one, as only a few events are planned. FOMC member Evans is set to give another speech at 13:20 GMT. Only 40 minutes after that, at 14:00 GMT the US Pending Home Sales data will be released.
Read More: Fundamental Analysis
EUR/USD trades near 1.08
Daily Chart: On Wednesday morning the common European currency traded flat against the US Dollar near the 1.0810 mark, and it was positioned to decline to the 1.0780 level. At the 1.0780 level was located the closest support to the currency exchange rate, as there the weekly PP was located at. Previously, during Tuesday's session, the pair failed to break the resistance put up by the 200-day SMA near the 1.0875 level. As a result the decline of the pair began, as it passed the weekly R1 and 38.20% Fibo, respectively, at 1.0841 and 1.0826. These levels of significance have begun to provide resistance on Wednesday.Daily chart
© Dukascopy Bank SA
Hourly chart: The hourly chart shows that the currency exchange rate began a decline at 14:00 GMT, and by 19:00 GMT the pair had lost 70 base points. Afterwards the pair slightly regained its losses, but it failed, as soon as it reached the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement level, which is located at the 1.0826 mark. Due to that reason the pair is continuing its decline.
Hourly chart
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Read More: Technical Analysis
Markets remain bearish
Traders have not changed their opinion, as 63% of open positions remain short. Meanwhile, 51% of set up orders are to sell the Euro.
OANDA bearish sentiment has decreased, as 58.54% of trader open positions are short on Wednesday, compared to 62.44% positions previously. In addition, SAXO bank clients are also bearish, as 62.57% of open positions are short, compared to 64.87% on Tuesday.
Spreads (avg,pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Average forecast says EUR/USD will trade around 1.07 in June
Traders, who were questioned on their longer-term views on EUR/USD between February 29 and March 29 expect, on average, the currency pair to trade around 1.07 by the start of July. In general, 58% (+3%) of participants believe the exchange rate will be generally above 1.06 in ninety days, and 20% (+1%) see it above 1.12. In the meantime, 13% (-2%) of those surveyed reckon the pair will be at parity or below. © Dukascopy Bank SA