- SWFX market sentiment is 59% bearish
- Trader pending orders are 59% to sell
- Pair opened Monday's session at 1.0732
- Upcoming Events: Bundesbank's President's Weidmann's Speech; FOMC Member's Evans's Speech; US President's Donald Trump's Speech
US industrial production was unchanged last month, while market analysts anticipated an increase, official figures revealed on Friday. The Federal Reserve reported factory production came in at 0.0% in February, falling behind analysts' expectations for a gain of 0.3%. Meanwhile, January's initially reported drop of 0.3% was revised to a 0.1% fall. However, manufacturing production, which accounts for 75% of overall industrial output, posted a 0.5% increase in February that matched the preceding month's rise. A global economic recovery, stronger business investment in equipment and appropriate inventory levels allowed manufacturers to gain momentum over the last several months.
The advance in manufacturing output was in line with analysts' forecasts. Data also showed utility output decreased 5.7%, following a 5.8% decline in January. The fall was mainly driven by unusually warm temperatures. Mining production rose 2.7% last month, boosted by oil and gas drilling. Business equipment output advanced 0.7% in February, compared to a 0.1% decline registered in the prior month, whereas production of construction supplies increased 1.3% after climbing 1.4% in January. Other data released on Friday showed mood of American shoppers jumped to 97.6 in March, according to the preliminary reading released by the University of Michigan.
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Upcoming events: Various speeches
Today's trading session will be all talk and no walk, as medium impact speeches are set to occur during the day. First of all German Bundesbank's President Weidmann is set to give a speech at 16:45 GMT. In the second half of the day FOMC member Evans is set to speak at 17:10 GMT. However, the most important event of the day will be Donald Trump's speech at 11:30 GMT.
Read More: Fundamental Analysis
EUR/USD remains below monthly resistance
Daily Chart: During the early hours of Monday's trading session the common European currency once more attempted to break higher against the Greenback. Previously, during Friday's trading session the currency pair failed to break through the resistance put up by the monthly R1, which is located at the 1.0772 level. It is most likely that the resistance will be broken soon, as the rate has moved and traded above it already more than once. In that case the pair would most likely surge to the next notable resistance level, as the weekly R1 is located at the 1.0814 level.Daily chart
© Dukascopy Bank SA
Hourly chart: The hourly chart reveals that it was not the resistance of the monthly R1, which reversed the rate previously. It was the resistance of the medium term ascending channel pattern. After encountering that the currency pair suddenly fell even below the 1.0750 mark. However, most recently the Euro has surged back to the monthly R1, as it is being propelled higher by the 20 and 55-hour SMAs, which seem to have enough strength to push the pair through the monthly resistance level.
Hourly chart
© Dukascopy Bank SA
Read More: Technical Analysis
Markets remain bearish
SWFX traders remain bearish, as 59% of trader open positions are short, and 59% of trader set up orders are to sell the Euro.
OANDA traders are clearly bearish, as 59.28% of trader open positions are short on Monday, compared to 60.10% positions previously. In addition, SAXO bank clients are also on the bearish side, as 62.09% of open positions are short, compared to 61.2% on Friday.
Spreads (avg,pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Average forecast says EUR/USD will trade around 1.06 in April
Traders, who were questioned on their longer-term views on EUR/USD between February 20 and March 20 expect, on average, the currency pair to trade around 1.06 by the start of April. In general, 51% (-2%) of participants believe the exchange rate will be generally above 1.06 in ninety days, and 16% (+1%) see it above 1.12. In the meantime, 20% of those surveyed reckon the pair will be at parity or below. © Dukascopy Bank SA