Gold trades above 1,200

Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
  • SWFX traders are 52% bullish
  • 69% of pending commands are to buy the metal
  • The bullion opened at 1,202.36
  • Upcoming Events: ECB President's Mario Draghi's speech
The yellow metal's price after all retreated back to previous levels, as the bullion trades indecisively near the 1,200 mark, which in accordance with some analysts is a psychological support level to the commodity price. However, it is more likely that the markets are expecting the confirmation of a rate hike from the Federal Reserve, and the stagnation is due to the loss of volatility in the US Dollar.

The US private sector created more jobs than expected last month, providing support for a Fed interest rate hike on Wednesday. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Friday that nonfarm payrolls rose 235,000 in February, while analysts expected nonfarm employment to climb 196,000 in the reported month. Meanwhile, January's gain of 227,000 was revised up to 238,000. The construction sector contributed most to the February gain, adding 58,000 jobs. Over the past six months, the sector created an average of 177,000 jobs per month Data also showed average hourly earnings advanced 0.2%, falling behind analysts' expectations for a 0.3% increase. January's rise of 0.1% was revised up to 0.1%.

The jobless rate came in at 4.7% for February, marginally down from the prior month's 4.8% and in line with market forecasts. Over the past three months, the US private sector added an average of 209,000 jobs per month. The better-than-expected NFP report combined with rising inflation are likely to force the Federal Reserve to raise rates for the first time this year on Wednesday, during its policy meeting. Back in December 2016, the Central bank projected at least three rate hikes in 2017. Analysts suggest that the US labour market is at or close to full employment.

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Upcoming events: US PPI

During Tuesday's trading session the fundamental data release to look forward is the publishing of the US PPI data at 12:30 GMT. It will be covered live by the Dukascopy research team on the bank's webinar platform. However, a big move is most unlikely, as markets are focused on the US Federal Reserve meeting, which will take place tomorrow.



Gold remains near 1,200 mark

Daily chart: During the previous trading session the bullion failed to move even higher, as the commodity price has retreated back to the 1,200 level, where it remained rather flat on Tuesday morning. However, the bullion's price was positioned to fall, as the closest support level was located at the 1,186.87 mark, where the weekly S1 is located at. In addition, the weekly S1 is strengthened by the lower Bollinger band, which was located at 1,187.74. Moreover, a decline of the price is likely because the 100-day SMA is providing resistance just above the price, as it is located at the 1,205.63 level.
Daily chart
© Dukascopy Bank SA

Hourly chart: There is no pattern noticeable on the hourly chart. However, by looking at the timeframe some additional information can be acquired. The commodity price has passed all of the hourly SMAs and it is the lower Bollinger band of the hourly chart, which is providing the support to the metal. On the other hand, there is nothing else keeping the bullion from falling, which means that the likelihood of a decline of the price is high.

Hourly chart
© Dukascopy Bank SA


Markets remain bullish

Traders have not changed their opinion, as 52% of open positions are long. Meanwhile, 69% of trader set up orders are set to buy the bullion.

OANDA Gold traders have decreased their bullish outlook, as open positions are 67.18% long on Tuesday, compared to 72.28% previously. Meanwhile, traders of SAXO bank have increased their bullish outlook, as 68.43% of open positions are long, compared to 62.53% on Monday.

Spreads (avg,pip) / Trading volume / Volatility


Market participants foresee the price of Gold being at 1,300 in April

Traders who were asked regarding their longer-term views on gold between February 14 and March 14 expect, on average, to see the metal near 1,300 in April. Generally, 46% (-5%) of participants believe the price will be above 1,300 in ninety days. Alongside, 39% (+4%) of those surveyed reckon the currencies will trade in the range between 1,100 and 1,300 over the next three months.

© Dukascopy Bank SA

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