Monthly Chart
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The daily chart shows that the pair has exited the pitchfork to the downside, bounced off the second parallel and soared to display the stickiness of the first one, which it is following now. The latest bounce occurred at a crossing between the parallel and a Fibonacci expansion at 1.0376, and expansions have been very much predictive of turning points at other levels as well. Going on, this would lead us to 1.1190, where the next expansion lies, and the soar, if successful is likely to be guided by a pitchfork parallel. A bullish SMA crossover just adds more upward pressures, however, it appears that the rate will be making its way to once again correct the pitchfork parallel. Furthermore, the specific parallel almost coincides with the median of the most recent pitchfork, representative of the current motion slope. So, if a surge extends, the motion should follow this pattern. Unfortunately, the main scenario does not possess as much bullish potential. A long-term confluence between a Gann angle and the 200-week SMA, which has been slightly overstepped just now, indicates that levels as high might be unsustainable, attributing more credibility to the long-term downside risks.
Daily Chart
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A new trend-line has been established on the hourly chart, and is now tested as a result of the broken broadening wedge, going in line with theory. The current level also coincides with the monthly Pivot Point and could to a bounce off of the 1.0874 area. However, if the trend-line breaks some sever bearish pressures might will be displayed in a head and shoulders pattern with a neckline at 1.0856. A step below the trend-line will therefore lead to the neckline, which will cut the motion to send the pair on a retracement, so any signals should just come after the second attempt at the area. A conclusive break below the neckline and then the parallel would, however, send an immediate strong bearish signal, and downside risks should not be underestimated – tells us the second test of the trend-line. The Parabolic SAR has not yet adjusted to the short-term downfall, still pointing north. The stochastic has exited a divergence phase and is now moving in line with directional risks in the grey zone, accompanied by the RSI which likewise gives no clue.
Hourly Chart
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