Gold remains below 1,200

Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
  • SWFX traders are 51% bullish
  • 58% of pending commands are to buy the metal
  • The bullion opened at 1,193.00
  • Upcoming Events: US Core PCE Price Index; US Personal Spending; US Pending Home Sales
After the rebound from the support cluster near the 1,185 mark, the yellow metal surged. However, the surge was short lived, and a reversal of the move has occurred. The commodity price is set to retreat and once more reach the support levels near the 1,185 mark.

Sales of new homes in the Unites States dropped to a 10-month low last month, official figures revealed on Thursday. According to the Commerce Department, home sales fell 10.4% to a seasonally adjusted annual pace of 536,000 units in December, whereas the November reading was revised up to 598,000 from the originally reported 592,000 unit-pace. Market analysts anticipated a slight decrease to 585,000 units during the reported period. The December figure marked the first monthly decline in the last three months. On an annual basis, sales were down 0.4% compare to December 2015. For all of 2016, new home sales grew 12.2% to 563,000 units, the highest level since 2007. Nevertheless, a severe lack of houses for sale continue to challenge the market.

Earlier this week, the NAR said that the supply of preowned houses on the market fell to a 17-month low last month. Analysts say that the rise in mortgage rate is unlikely to have a major impact on the housing market. However, forecasts suggest further increases if the Federal Reserve keeps its promise to raise interest rates at least three times in 2017. Separately, the Labor Department reported initial jobless claims rose to 259,000 in the week ending January 20, following the preceding week's 237,000 filings and surpassing analysts' expectations for an increase to 247,000.

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Upcoming events: Various data releases

There are set to be released loads of data with medium impact during the next 24 hours. Such data releases should be watched, but their impact usually is not big enough for volatility traders to make profit. At 13:30 GMT the US Core Price Index and the US Personal Spending will be published. Afterwards, at 15:00 GMT the US Pending Home Sales data will be out.



Gold remains below 1,200

Daily chart: The yellow metal began the week higher due to US Dollar weakness. The fall in the Greenback during the weekend was caused by uncertainty caused by US politics. Particularly, Donald Trump's signed policies are making their impact of uncertainty on the financial markets due to their unforecastable nature. From a technical perspective, the bullion is likely to surge up to the newly calculated weekly PP at 1,196.86. However, the commodity price is most likely to bounce off from the resistance level afterwards.
Daily chart
© Dukascopy Bank SA

Hourly chart: The hourly chart reveals that it was after all the 23.60% Fibonacci retracement level at 1,182.37, which provided strong enough support to the bullion for it to rebound. However, regarding the future, it can be seen that the commodity price has already reversed its direction before reaching the weekly PP. During its move downwards the yellow metal is being slightly supported by the 20 and 55-hour SMAs. Although, their support will most likely be not enough to stop the fall, and gold will once more reach the monthly R1 at 1,184.64.

Hourly chart
© Dukascopy Bank SA


SWFX traders become neutral

SWFX traders still remain almost neutral, as 51% of open positions are long on Monday. In the meantime, 58% of trader set up orders are to buy the bullion.

OANDA Gold traders have a bullish outlook on the yellow metal, as open positions were 69 % bullish on Monday. Meanwhile, traders of SAXO bank also remain long, regarding the yellow metal, as 67.71% of open positions are bullish.

Spreads (avg,pip) / Trading volume / Volatility


Market participants foresee the price of Gold being around 1,250 in May

Traders who were asked regarding their longer-term views on gold between December 30 and January 30 expect, on average, to see the metal near 1,250 in early April. Generally, 47% of participants believe the price will be above 1,250 in ninety days. Alongside, 36% (+2%) of those surveyed reckon the currencies will trade in the range between 1,000 and 1,200 over the next three months.

© Dukascopy Bank SA

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