- The portion of purchase orders surged from 55 to 68%
- 54% of traders with a positive outlook towards the US Dollar.
- Immediate resistance lies at 116.20
- The closest support rests around 115.00
- Upcoming events: US Initial Jobless Claims, US Import Prices, US Federal Budget Balance
The number of job openings in the United States was little changed in November, according to the latest data released on Tuesday. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported monthly job openings dropped to 5.52 million during the reported month, missing analysts expectations' of 5.59 million. Meanwhile, October's level was revised down to 5.45 million from 5.53 million. The JOLTS report is closely followed by the Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen. Jobs in local government, excluding education, climbed to more than 32,000, whereas private job openings overshoot government hires by 48,000. Over the month, hires and separations were also little changed at 5.2 million and 5.0 million, respectively, while the layoffs and discharges rate remained unchanged at 1.1% during the eleventh month of the year.
Other data released Tuesday showed US wholesale inventories rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.0% in November from 0.9% in the previous month. This marked the largest increase since November 2014.
US fundamentals in focus
Today attention turns to the US data, namely the Import Prices and the Monthly Budget Statement. Initial Jobless Claims are also due today, but they tend to have close to no impact on the exchange rates. As for the Import Prices, they inform the changes in the price of imported products into the US. The higher the cost of imported goods, the stronger the effect they will have on inflation, redunding in a higher probability of a rate rise. The Monthly Budget Statement, however, summarizes the financial activities of federal entities, disbursing officers, and Federal Reserve banks. A positive budget statement that receipts exceed budgetary outlays is seen as bullish for the USD.USD/JPY continues to suffer from Trump' conference
After experienced some high volatility, the US Dollar suffered another leg down on Wednesday, but managed to remain above the immediate support, namely the weekly S1. Moreover, Donald Trump said nothing to support USD bulls yesterday, causing bears to take over. This USD/JPY weakness is likely to persist today, with the immediate support area around 115.00, namely the weekly S1 and the Bollinger band, being incapable of limiting the losses. Instead, attention should be paid to the second demand cluster, located at 113.50 and formed by the weekly S2 and the monthly S1.Daily chart
The trend-line was somewhat confirmed yesterday, as with the help of the 200-hour SMA, the US DSD/JPY currency pair bounced back, making its was all the way down to the 23.60% Fibo at 114.01 today. The exchange rate is expected to rebound from this point and put the down-trend to the test again eventually.
Hourly chart
There are now 54% of traders with a positive outlook towards the US Dollar today, compared to 53% on Wednesday. The portion of purchase orders, however, surged from 55 to 68%.
Right now 54% of OANDA clients are bears, compared to 53% on Wednesday. In the meantime, Saxo Bank clients have bulls gaining numbers, being that 53% of their open positions are now long and the remaining 47% are short.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Traders are becoming increasingly bullish on the Dollar
According to the poll that gathered forecasts between December 12 and January 12, traders expect the US Dollar to appreciate to 119.25 yen in three months' time, while the forecast for November 30 was only 103.30 yen. It is also worth noticing that 68% of all forecasts fall above 117 yen, which is close to the current spot price. The majority of people voted expect the US Dollar to cost somewhere between 123.00 and 124.50 yen in three months, with 18% of the survey participants choosing this trading range. At the same time, the second most popular interval was the 120.00-121.50 one, with 15% of survey participants choosing it.