- The share of sell orders slid from 57 to 53%
- 72% of traders hold long positions
- Immediate resistance is at 1.2184
- The closest support is around 1.2120
- Upcoming Events: BoE Carney's Speech, UK NIESR GDP Estimate, US Crude Oil Inventories, President-Elect Trump's Speech
The number of job openings in the United States was little changed in November, according to the latest data released on Tuesday. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported monthly job openings dropped to 5.52 million during the reported month, missing analysts expectations' of 5.59 million. Meanwhile, October's level was revised down to 5.45 million from 5.53 million. The JOLTS report is closely followed by the Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen. Jobs in local government, excluding education, climbed to more than 32,000, whereas private job openings overshoot government hires by 48,000. Over the month, hires and separations were also little changed at 5.2 million and 5.0 million, respectively, while the layoffs and discharges rate remained unchanged at 1.1% during the eleventh month of the year..
Other data released Tuesday showed US wholesale inventories rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.0% in November from 0.9% in the previous month. This marked the largest increase since November 2014.
BoE Carney's and US Trump's speeches are the main events
From the UK side the most important events today will be the NIESR GDP Estimate and BoE Carney's Speech. As head of the Central Bank, Mark Carney's speeches tend to have a notable impact on the British Pound and the NIESR GDP Estimate gives a figure in an effort to predict the country's GDP. However, The US President-Elect is also scheduled to speak later today and his speech is expected to have a higher impact on the given pair than the previously mentioned events.
GBP/USD remains on the back foot
The Sterling surprised with its performance on Tuesday, as it managed to unexpectedly recover from its intraday low yesterday and even ended the day in the green zone. However, the Pound lacked the strength to climb over the weekly S1, which was the immediate resistance at 1.2184. The weekly S1 retains its role of the nearest resistance today, expected to trigger more weakness. Technical indicators are also in favour of the negative outcome, as they are now giving bearish signals. The support cluster around 1.2120, formed by the Bollinger band and the monthly S1, is likely to limit the losses today, as it has with Monday's and Tuesday's volatility.
Daily chart
From the looks of it the Cable has returned within the borders of the descending channel pattern, however, the upper trend-line is now unlikely to prevent the pair from edging higher. This does not imply the Pound is to outperform the US Dollar, as risks remain skewed to the downside, with the 1.2120 level continuing to provide support.
Hourly chart
Traders mostly bullish
Bulls keep getting stronger, with 72% of traders holding long positions (up from 71%). Meanwhile, the share of sell orders slid from 57 to 53%.
A similar situation is observed elsewhere. For example, 66% of positions open at OANDA are currently long. This is more than the share of shorts (34%), more than sufficient for the sentiment to be called bullish. Similarly, sentiment at Saxo Bank is also bullish, with 67% of traders being long and 33% being short the Sterling against the US Dollar.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Traders expect the Cable to keep falling
By the end of the next three months traders expect the Cable to fall under the 1.24 major level, as 70% of survey participants believe so. While the current price is around 1.22, the average forecast for April 11 is 1.2214. However, the 1.20-1.22 interval is now the most popular one, having 18% of the votes, while on the second place are the 1.14-1.16 and the 1.22-1.24 price ranges, with 14% of poll participants choosing each of them. Furthermore, the 1.16-1.18 and the 1.18-1.20 intervals were chosen by 12% of the voters each.