Gold continues higher

Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
  • 55% of all SWFX open positions are long
  • 58% of pending commands were to buy the metal
  • The bullion opened at 1,187.01
  • Upcoming Events: Trump Speaks; FOMC Member Dudley Speaks
Although the yellow metal already met with the medium term resistance on Tuesday, it still managed to rebound and continue its way upward. The reason for the surge from a technical perspective is the fact that the upper trend line of long term channel has not been confirmed. However, there are various levels of resistance above the metal. Due to that anyone of them could be the catalyst for the expected reversal in the yellow metal.

The number of job openings in the United States was little changed in November, according to the latest data released on Tuesday. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported monthly job openings dropped to 5.52 million during the reported month, missing analysts' expectations of 5.59 million. Meanwhile, October's level was revised down to 5.45 million from 5.53 million. The JOLTS report is closely followed by the Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen. Jobs in local government, excluding education, climbed to more than 32,000, whereas private job openings overshoot government hires by 48,000. Over the month, hires and separations were also little changed at 5.2 million and 5.0 million, respectively, while the layoffs and discharges rate remained unchanged at 1.1% during the eleventh month of the year.

Other data released Tuesday showed US wholesale inventories rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.0% in November from 0.9% in the previous month. This marked the largest increase since November 2014.

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Upcoming fundamental releases: Trump speaks

Fluctuations in the financial markets on Wednesday will be caused by US President-Elect Donald Trump, who has scheduled a press conference at Trump Tower for 16:00 GMT. In addition, the strength of the US Dollar and subsequently the markets might be shaken by the speech of FOMC member Dudley at 18:20 GMT.



Gold struggles near 1,190 level

Daily chart: The yellow metal continued to surge during Wednesday's trading session, marking the third consecutive session of gains. However, the bullion is facing a strong resistance level, which is keeping it down. The resistance is represented by the weekly R1 at 1,189.45, and the level is set to become even stronger, as the 55-day SMA is moving lower and will join the weekly R1 tomorrow. In addition, at 1,195.14 is a trend line intersection of the medium and long term patterns. These factors combined indicate at an end of the bullion's surge. A reversal of the trend is about to occur.

Daily chart
© Dukascopy Bank SA

Hourly chart: The hourly chart reveals that the previously thought ascending short term channel is actually a rising wedge. The wedge's upper trend line has already moved past the resistance line of the medium term trend line. This once more confirms the hypothesis of an upcoming reversal of the direction of the yellow metal, which was already forecasted before.

Hourly chart
© Dukascopy Bank SA


SWFX trader sentiment bullish

Traders remain bullish, regarding the yellow metal, as 55% of open positions were long on Wednesday. Meanwhile, 58% of trader set up orders were to buy the metal.

OANDA Gold traders have decreased their largely optimistic outlook on the yellow metal, as open positions were 76% bullish on Wednesday, compared to 80% previously. Meanwhile, traders of SAXO bank have almost not changed their bullish outlook in terms of prospects for the metal, as today showed 67.21% of traders betting the metal will surge, compared to 67.01% during the previous session.

Spreads (avg,pip) / Trading volume / Volatility


Market participants foresee the price of Gold being around 1,200 in April

Traders who were asked regarding their longer-term views on gold between December 11 and January 11 expect, on average, to see the metal around 1,200 in early April. Generally, 37% of participants believe the price will be above 1,250 in ninety days. Alongside, 31% (+3%) of those surveyed reckon the currencies will trade in the range between 1,000 and 1,200 over the next three months.

© Dukascopy Bank SA

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