Gold retreats after Tuesday's surge

Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
  • 59% of all SWFX open positions are long
  • 62% of pending commands were to buy the metal
  • Gold was not traded on Monday
  • Upcoming Events: US Pending Home Sales
The yellow metal showed a green candle on Wednesday morning. However, the situation in reality was different. Previously, on Tuesday the bullion's price surged above the 1,150 mark, where it met resistance and fell down to the 1,133.58 mark. There it found support in the weekly PP and rebounded. The Wednesday's surge is only a continuation of the rebound, which began on Tuesday after a large fall of the commodity price. On a medium term scale the metal is still set to decline.

Americans became more optimistic about the economy in December since the postelection bump in confidence continues. As data suggest the US consumer confidence reached its highest in more than 15 years during the previous week as Americans expect more strength ahead in business conditions, stock prices and the job market following the election of Donald Trump as president in November. According to the Conference Board the Consumer Confidence Index advanced to 113.7 in December from an upwardly revised 109.4 in November. Meanwhile, the data topped estimates in a Reuters poll for a reading of 109.0. Another reason for the gain in confidence is surging optimism among older Americans. Economists follow confidence indicators because upbeat consumers are more likely to increase personal spending, which makes up most of the US economy.

In the meantime, house prices continued their steady recovery in October, as another spike in borrowing costs after Donald Trump's victory.

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US Pending Home Sales

The US Pending Home Sales are scheduled to be released at 15:00 GMT, and this is marked as a medium impact data release. However, the possibility of the data actually impacting the direction of the metal is highly unlikely as the data is minor, and it is a sure thing that in the event of a divergence from the forecasts it would only cause minor fluctuations. It is usual that after such fluctuations the rates return to the previous level in thirty minutes.



Gold trades above 1,140 mark

Daily chart: The yellow metal traded above the 1,140 mark on Wednesday morning. Previously, the commodity price jumped with high momentum and reached above the 1,150 mark during the early hours of Tuesday's trading session. However, it retreated after the surge until it found support in the 1,133.57 level, where the weekly PP is located at. Today's surge was just a continuation of the rebound. It is likely that the rise of the yellow metal will not extend further than the 1.150,18 mark where the weekly R2 is located at.

Daily chart
© Dukascopy Bank SA

Hourly chart: The hourly chart has regained relevant Bollinger bands, as more than 20 hours have passed since the flat candles of the Monday's trading session influenced the commodity price. In addition, as soon as that occurred, the upper Bollinger band went to work and provided resistance to the bullion by hindering its rebound from the 1,133.57 mark.

Hourly chart
© Dukascopy Bank SA


SWFX sentiment remains bullish

Traders remain long on the metal, as 59% of open positions were long on Wednesday. Meanwhile 62% of trader set up orders were to buy the bullion.

OANDA Gold traders remain largely optimistic regarding the Bullion, as open positions were 79% long. Meanwhile, traders of SAXO bank increased their bullish stance, as Wednesday showed 67.40% of traders betting the metal will surge, compared to 63.35% during the previous session.

Spreads (avg,pip) / Trading volume / Volatility


Market participants foresee the price of gold below 1,200 by end of March

Traders who were asked regarding their longer-term views on gold between November 28 and December 28 expect, on average, to see the metal below 1,200 by end of March. Generally, 22% (-8%) of participants believe the price will be above 1,300 in ninety days. Alongside, 34% (+4%) of those surveyed reckon the currencies will trade in the range between 1,000 and 1,200 over the next three months.

© Dukascopy Bank SA

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