- 52% of all SWFX open positions are long
- The yellow metal's price was dictated by US politics
- In the aftermath of Donald Trump's victory in the US presidential election gold fell after an initial spike
- Economic events to watch over the next 24 hours: US Retail Sales; US Empire State Manufacturing Index; US Import Prices; FOMC Member Fischer Speaks
Mood of Americans shoppers improved more than expected in November, after falling to its lowest level since 2014 in the previous month, a flash survey showed on Friday. The Consumer Sentiment Index produced by the University of Michigan came in at 91.6, up from October's final reading of 87.2, while market analysts anticipated s slight acceleration to 87.4 points. The survey was conducted before the results of the US presidential elections were announced. Furthermore, the Index was 0.3% higher than at the same time last year, and surpassed the current year's average of 91.1 points. Meanwhile, the sub-gauge of current economic conditions advanced 2.6% to 105.9, and the sub-gauge of future expectations increased 7.4% to 82.5 from the prior month's 76.8 points. Consumer sentiment managed to improve in November, even though long-term and short-term inflation expectations climbed to 2.7%, after touching a record low of 2.4% in October. Richard Curtin, chief economist of the survey, said that it may be a one-month phenomenon. Nevertheless, he added that the November data may be enough to justify a December rate hike. The EUR/USD pair fell immediately to 1.0872 from 1.0873 ahead of the release.
The number of Americans filing for unemployment aid dropped more than expect last week, official figures showed on Thursday. According to the US Department of Labor, initial jobless claims fell 11,000 to 254,000 in the week ended November 4, down from the preceding week's 267,000 filings, while market analysts anticipated an increase of 2,000 to 267,000. This marked the 88th week of initial claims below the 300,000 level, the longest streak since 1973. The four-week moving average of claims increased 1,750 to 259,750 in the reported week. Thursday's data also showed that continuing claims grew 18,000 to 2,041,000 in the week ending October 29, whereas their four-week moving average declined to 2,039,500, the lowest level since July of 2000. After the release, the EUR/USD pair fell 0.09% to 1.0902, whereas it touched its highest level of 1.1298 on Wednesday after the results of the presidential race were announced. Last week's initial jobless claims together with the NFP report released on Friday have strengthened odds for a December rate hike, despite Donald Trump's surprise victory in the US Presidential elections, which sent shockwaves across the world.
Upcoming fundamentals: Retail Sales in the lead
In the second half of the day data from the US will begin pouring in, and that will subsequently dictate the strength of the US Dollar, against which the yellow metal is traded. US Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales will be published at 13:30 GMT. In addition, at the same time the Empire State Manufacturing Index and the US Import Price data will be out. Moreover, by the end of the day, at 18:30 GMT, FOMC member Fischer is set to give a speech, giving clues on US monetary policy.
Gold trades near 1,225
Daily chart: On Tuesday morning the bullion regained Monday's losses, as the metal traded near the 1,225 mark. Previously, the yellow metal did not drop down to the 1,200 level on Monday, as it stopped near the 1,219.50 level by the end of the day. The stop of the fall is explained by a pick-up in physical buying of gold, as lower prices attracted more market participants. Daily aggregate technical indicators forecast that the metal will remain flat by the end of the day, which might occur, as the markets search for clues regarding the commodity price in the aftermath of the recent fall.Daily chart
Hourly chart: The hourly chart reveals that the yellow metal stopped the fall, when it simply encountered the lower Bollinger band at 14:00 GMT. That means that, as indicated by analysts, the metal had a too sharp fall previously. It has to be noted that between the two monthly support levels, between which the commodity trades, there were no other strong levels of significance until the 55-hour SMA moved in from the upside in the early hours of Tuesday.
Hourly chart
Traders almost neutral
OANDA open long positions have slightly increased and are at 78.48%, compared to 76.97% on Monday. SAXO bank traders remain long, as 67.71% of traders were long on Tuesday morning, compared to 67.28% during the previous session.