GBP/CAD Fundamentals Overwhelm Technical Signals

Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
GBP/CAD contained its movements neatly inside of a channel down for the last year, but has recently shown some upside potential, adjusting the bottom trend-line to fit a falling wedge. The downtrend got a decent confirmation at 2.0954 where a double top expressed built up bearish momentum with a breach of the neckline at 1.8205. The pair then sent a bullish signal on June 19 with a break out of the channel, just to dip right back in when the Brexit vote came. Moving on, it appears that the rate executed part of a double bottom formation, failing to break the neckline at 1.7560 and has now set it as an area of significance combined with the 23.60% Fibo (2016 dive), and will attend to it in case of a reversal or a bullish breakout from the current patterns. 

A Tenkan sen and Kijun sen crossover is about to send a strong bullish signal, if executed. This would require a break above the patterns, meaning that we will see an indication of future movements in the next few days with the critical level being 1.6790/6800. If the pair fails to reverse on the current wave, we will watch the 1.5768 area closely to see either a confirmation of the wedge, which could eventually lead to a successful reversal, or supply pressures putting the pair on track for the bottom trend-line of the channel.  

Daily Chart
© Dukascopy Bank SA


While we base our expectations on the strong channel level, there are other areas of significance that might come into play and either confirm a reversal or cap upside potential. With 1.7028 representing the Gann angle, a surge might still be cut, denying the reversal, and conversely – 1.6684, the Andrew's Pitchfork boundary might confirm a breakout before the channel line today if the pair closes above. November 14 is the date predicted by the Gann periods, which could set up some weakness in front of the Gann angle at 1.7334, however, we would not put much weight on this prediction, noting that the periods have not (yet) been conclusively confirmed.

Aggregate Technical Indicators
© Dukascopy Bank SA


Although GBP/CAD faces technically critical moves today and tomorrow, we could expect some false breakouts and fundamentally driven fluctuations stemming from a chock-full economic calendar. 12:30 GMT will bring the Canadian unemployment change as well as the unemployment rate, along with the trade balance numbers. Additionally, MPC member Forbes speech could bring some surprises to the hypersensitive Pound markets at 14:45 GMT, right after the Canadian Ivey PMI at 14:00 GMT. Following the Article 50 ruling, fundamentals are likely driving markets more than technicals. 

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