EUR/SGD breaks senior downtrend

Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
EUR/SGD fell 35% over the last eight years, and has just recently taken a different stance rather than following the channel down pattern as it did during the plunge. 2015 marked a new trend with a descending triangle, which shared its upper trend-line with the senior channel, both losing to the strong Euro in the last two months. Working against the extension of the upward breach at 1.5244, the pair has entered a bearish pattern on the hourly chart, which appears channel-like and is likely to finalize the retracement, limiting the losses then and there, as the several failed upside breakout suggest. What speaks in favour of an extended uptrend after the broken line is corrected is the 44-pip channel up, which, although still requires confirmation, makes the trend clear. We see potential for an immediate rally, suggesting that the retracement could be completed already and the pair could reach 1.5439, the upper trend-line of the channel up pattern.  

Monthly Chart
© Dukascopy Bank SA


The pair has remained steady inside of the Andrew's Pitchfork, trading just above the bottom line for the last four days, after diving from consistent median-line tests. We are looking for tests of 1.5303, the 200-hour SMA with some intermediate hitches before that. In case the channel up motion is maintained, 1.5319, the upper trend-line of the junior channel down will be attempted and broken, causing a bullish outburst towards 1.5365. 

Daily Chart
© Dukascopy Bank SA


Previous highs will remind of themselves at 1.5333, 1.5361 and 1.5396 on the way. Trading below a green Ichimoku cloud, the movements have produced a red one for the future, setting 1.5283 as the level to watch over the next session. With Tenkan sen lying almost on top of Kijun sen, the lines have somehow managed to maintain a bearish position, signalling that the longer-term rally could be delayed.  

Hourly Chart
© Dukascopy Bank SA


Monday was a busy day for the Euro, opening up with the Italian Trade Balance, Final yearly CPI and Final Core yearly CPI, and finishing off with Draghis and German Buba President Weidmann's speeches at 17:35 GMT. While news in the morning session failed to shake the markets, afternoon's schedule as well as Thursday's ECB releases are bound to instill some uncertainty in EUR/SGD movements.

Aggregate Technical Indicators
© Dukascopy Bank SA
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