- 55% of all SWFX open positions are long
- Gold opened Thursday's session at 1,267.17
- Economic events to watch over the next 24 hours: US Unemployment Change
US private companies increased their job creation less than expected last month, official data revealed on Wednesday. According to the ADP National Employment Report, non-farm private employment rose 154,000 on a seasonally adjusted basis in September, compared to the preceding month's downwardly revised figure of 175,000, while market analysts expected a slighter drop to 166,000 during the reported period. The ADP report comes out every month two days ahead of the NFP report, which is expected to announce 171,000 new jobs for September, following the previous month's 151,000. Meanwhile, ISM's Manufacturing PMI came in at 57.1, in September, after touching its lowest level of 51.4 points in August, while markets expect the Index to rise to 53.1. Furthermore, factory orders for US goods jumped 0.2%, surpassing the 0.4% fall forecast. The services sector accounts for approximately 80% of the US economy. In the meantime, the EIA data released on Wednesday showed US crude oil inventories dropped 3.0 million barrels last week, declining for the fifth consecutive week. Analysts anticipated a buildup of 1.1 million barrels in the week ending September 30, after the previous week's 1.9 million-barrel fall.
Manufacturing activity in the United States rebounded in September after a disappointing August report, official data showed on Monday. The Institute for Supply Management said its Index of manufacturing activity advanced to 51.5 in September, following the previous month's 49.4, while market analysts pencilled in a 1.0 point-acceleration to 50.4 in the reported month. Back in August, manufacturing output contracted for the first time since February of this year, as only six out of 18 industries reported growth. A number below 50 points indicates contraction in the US manufacturing sector, while a number above indicates improving conditions. Furthermore, the New Orders Index rose to 55.1 the Employment Index jumped to 49.7 in September from last month's 49.1 and 48.3, respectively, while the Price Paid Index remained unchanged at 53.0, in line with analysts' expectations. The data indicated that nine of the 18 industries reported a rise in new orders, while 10 of the 18 industries reported an increase in production last month. After the release, the US Dollar rose against other major currencies, trading at 1.1217 against the Euro, 1.2833 against the Sterling and 101.44 against the Japanese Yen. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index rose 0.25% to 95.694.
Upcoming fundamentals: Official US Unemployment Claims
There will be one data release affecting the strength of the US Dollar and subsequently all of the market, as the US Unemployment Claims will be out at 12:30 GMT. The data might come in lower than expected due to the fact that on Tuesday the ADP Non-Farm Employment change came in 12,000 lower than forecasted.
Gold in another session of losses
Daily chart: The yellow metal continued to lose value on Thursday morning, as the metal had moved to the 1,365 level. Previously, the bullion attempted to break through the resistance put up by the weekly S3 and the monthly S2, which are located respectively at 1,275.89 and 1,273.23. Gold is most likely to continue to move lower. However, at 1,258.70 the 200-day SMA is approaching from the downside and is most likely to slow down the fall of the bullion.Daily chart
Hourly chart: The hourly chart for gold not only provides additional information, but also reveals more information for analysis. First of all it reveals that the bullion attempted to break the resistance put up by the monthly S2 at 1,273.23 and the monthly S3 at 1,275.89. However, the metal failed to do that and retreated at 14:00 GMT. The following fall of the commodity is more of an interest to analysts, as it seems that the previously assumed rising wedge might actually be a channel, and at 16:00 GMT the rate confirmed this fact by rebounding against the level, where it was assumed that the channel's lower trend line is located at.
Hourly chart
Traders ignore losses and remain bullish
Meanwhile, OANDA Bank clients remain majorly bullish with respect to the bullion, as on Thursday morning 73.52% of all positions were long. In the meantime, SAXO bank clients show a similar trend with 67.41% of all positions being held by bulls.