Weekly Chart
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The daily chart, however, shows that solid support and resistance has been formed over the last two months, proposing an unlikely scenario of an extended consolidation, which would ultimately crush all of the other patterns outstanding. Having taken into account all of the above, we still remain heavily in favour of the continuation of the downtrend.
We are looking for the pair to complete its path north to the senior channel bottom trend-line at 0.6042, the lowest level since 2003, which would require a break below 0.7493/64, the most recent support and junior channel bottom boundary, as well as 0.6336, 2009 lows. Until the junior channel bottom trend-line is reached, 0.7613, 0.7585/90, and 0.7528 will be the levels to watch.
Daily Chart
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Elevated by the underlying green Ichimoku cloud, AUD/USD brings some bullish potential to the table as well, backing the tendency with a Tenkan-sen location above the Kijun-sen line. With various time-frame SMAs lying beneath the current rate, casts doubt on the prospect that the senior downtrend will definitely be respected, suggesting that it might be losing strength against the junior pattern. A break above the superior channel would bring 0.7801, the April high, into the picture with further risk at 0.7903 along with other significant levels. The break is likely to be corrected at the upper pattern trend-line, extending the rally to 0.8256 where the junior channel upper trend-line rests.
The ISM manufacturing PMI induced some volatility, but calming the markets right after the announcement. October 4 is set to be a day of big news for the Australian Dollar, with Building Approvals, the Cash Rate as well as the RBA statement coming out at 12:30 and 3:30 GMT.
Aggregate Technical Indicators
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