AUD/USD risks breaking the bullish trend

Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
© Dukascopy Bank SA
"Another RBA rate cut and lower commodity prices should reinforce pressure on AUD/USD multi-week/month, to the low 0.70s. Anticipation of a Fed rate hike in December should underpin a broad-based (though not steep) USD up trend in coming months." - WIB (based on WBP Online)

Pair's Outlook 
The AUD/USD currency pair managed to reconquer the 0.75 level yesterday, but gains were still limited by the immediate resistance cluster. Today the technical indicator signals shifted from bullish to mixed, suggesting that the Aussie could suffer a decline today. However, the Australian Dollar is unlikely to negate all Tuesday's gains, as the three-month up-trend is supporting the currency at 0.7477, also reinforced by the 100-day SMA. We should not rule out the possibility of the exchange rate falling deeper, as the FOMC could surprise with hawkish statement today, therefore, boosting the US currency. Contrariwise, a dovish tone could trigger another rally for the pair.  

Traders' Sentiment 
Now three quarters (75%) of all open positions are short, compared to 74% yesterday. The number of buy orders inched up from 26 to 57%.
© Dukascopy Bank SA

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