US Labour market conditions index –4.8 vs. –0.8

Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
"The news from the labor market over the past year has been generally good, the unemployment rate declining below 5 percent, rising household incomes, and tentative signs of faster wage growth. At the same time, recent signs of a slowdown in job creation bear close watching ".
-  Janet Yellen, Federal Reserve Chairwoman 

According to the latest release, the US labour market conditions index (LMCI) showed a 4.8 decline for the previous month, taking into account a revised 3.4 drop also for May. The following data confirms the fifth successive decrease simultaneously is maintaining a very disappointing trend seen for a whole 2016 year. The freshly release data could provoke fresh doubts whether the Federal Reserve will be able to raise interest rates in the near future even despite the purely negative Friday's employment data. Moreover, following the declines in the previous two months, the overall down-trend has spurred and this is the longest pace below the zero level since the 2007/08 financial crash. There is an important risk that it impossible for companies to find suitable staff, especially as delivery backlogs and longer delivery times has been significant features in recent PMI data which suggests capacity constraints.

Also, On Monday the Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen held a speech and drop a hint that interest rate raise still could be possible since positive economic releases have outweighed the negative. Meanwhile, in case if the US economy gives further indications in the upcoming month that it is slowing, any expectations about possible monetary rate increase will disappear.


© Dukascopy Bank SA

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