Community Forecasts for April 11 - 15: EUR/USD 1W Chart

Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
© Dukascopy bank SA
The previous week was relatively calm, experiencing few ups and downs. However, the most popular pair on the foreign exchange market still managed to reach its highest level in 5 months being affected by dovish Fed minutes and the high probability that rate hikes will be prolonged until the second part of 2016. Moreover, lower US GDP also heavily weighted on the dollar giving a strong support to the Euro. The Atlanta Fed lowered the US GDP first  quarter forecast to 0.1%, from previous forecasts of 0.4% earlier this week. The revisions were made following a report released by the US Census Bureau earlier on Friday, which showed sharp declines in wholesale trade inventories in February. Meanwhile, for the month, wholesale sales dropped for the fourth straight period, while auto inventories plunged by 1.0%, suffering its largest decline since September, 2013. The Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen, attempted to reassure investors saying that the US economy remains on solid footing even as she has expressed hesitancy to raise interest rates due to increased global financial risks.  
Meanwhile, this week the sentiment among Dukascopy traders ameliorated to approach average level of several last weeks, as now 61% of them are waiting for the pair to advance from Monday to Friday. Average market expectation, however, moved slightly up to reach the 1.14 level on Friday, April 15. Moreover, 45% of all votes are set in range between 1.13 and 1.145, meaning that the pair is likely to hover around current levels for some time in the future. Traders can pay attention to revised data on consumer inflation on Thursday. The US, in turn, is to round up the week with reports on manufacturing activity in the New York region, industrial production and a preliminary reading of consumer sentiment. 

© Dukascopy bank SA
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