EUR/TRY 1M Chart: Channel Up

Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
© Dukascopy Bank SA
Assuming that EUR/TRY is in fact trading between two rising parallel lines in the monthly chart, the pair is to preserve bearish momentum for the next 3-4 months, until it reaches the lower boundary of the channel. The price is expected to bottom out near 2.80 and then resume the long-term recovery. However, the fact that the market is already oversold (71% of traders are holding short positions) is against such a course of events, and there could be a small rebound from the 20-month SMA. Meanwhile, if the pair falls through the rising trend-line, the next support will be at 2.61, represented by the last year's low, while additional demand level is supposed to be at 2.18 (the lowest since 2012).
© Dukascopy Bank SA
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