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While markets were relatively calm over the last week, the EUR/USD performance was more impressive. The pair was seen in the turbulence for the 45% of the time, while average price stood at 1.117. The main catalyst was the announcement of annual rate of inflation in Germany which dropped to zero in September, adding to pressure on the European Central Bank to ramp up its stimulus programme. Moreover, the release of upbeat US consumer sentiment data, at the same date, also added to the strong Dollar and strengthened the hopes for a potential US rate hike later this year.
This week the number of bullish and bearish votes is almost equal, however, the bullish outlook obtained the majority of votes. Meanwhile, the consensus forecast for this Friday, October 9 stands for 1.125. Concerning the traders' opinions, the RacerX, who supports the bearish outlook suggests "The pair appear to be in a range between 1.10800 and 1.14600 for the month of September. This will likely continue until there is more news on the Fed's intentions with regards to the expected rate hike. I think that this uncertainty has held investors back preventing the range to be broken, either way. None the less I think that mid-term trend is still to the downside. Should it break 1.10800 support, I believe the pair might gain further momentum to the downside." In contrast, khalidamassi sees a clear bullish signal, expecting the next week to be critical for the pair as it may break current range, and soar above 1.1300 level.
Ahead of the coming week, there is a list of significant events likely to affect the market. On Thursday, the ECB is to publish the minutes of its most recent meeting, while the US, in turn, will announce the weekly report on initial jobless claims.
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