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Compared to a number of weeks before, in the period of September 21-25 the USD/JPY currency cross developed in a more bearish manner, even though the closing level on Friday at 120.2 was able to overcome the Monday's opening mark of 120.8. The currency was additionally driven by fundamental statistics, Japan's core consumer price index, which includes oil but omits fresh food prices, dropped 0.1% in August from a year ago, showing the first annual decline since April 2013. The headline CPI rose 0.2% year over year, as in July. The pair rebounded on Friday as US Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen signaled that rates would likely rise this year. Meanwhile, 54% of Dukascopy Community members forecasted a bearish development of this currency cross last week.
Nevertheless, this week overall sentiment remained negative, as slightly more than 45% of traders expect the pair to close below the 120.00 level in the end of the present working week, while the average expectation stays just below this level. At the same time, csan86 predicts, "This currency cross is still undecided from the point of view of trend. By the way, some interesting things happened on the four-hour time-frame. The price closed over the symmetrical triangle pattern but it was pulled back by the bears so the third top just developed and reconfirmed the rectangle pattern on this time-frame. I am expecting the price will violate the bottom of the rectangle pattern on the next week (119.000)". However, khalidamassi fully supports an opposite opinion: "USD/JPY will be affected this week by US NFP numbers, USD/JPY still in range between 119 and 121 for the fourth week, good US numbers should make pair break higher 121, bad numbers may send the pair to bottom 119, but anyway and despite of US NFP numbers, clear break of current range will make a direction for the pair."
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