© Dukascopy Bank SA
A week ago, Dukascopy Community members expected the most popular currency pair to edge higher to around the 1.118 level. However, the Euro took a dive and ended the week lower against the Greenback. On Monday, European leaders unanimously reached a third bailout deal for Greece, worth up to 86 billion euros, therefore, taking off the table the possible Greek exit from the Euro zone. This was seen negatively by investors, as they believe this is only a temporary solution and the Euro zone without Greece would be stronger. On Tuesday, a decline in US retail sales pushed the Euro temporarily higher, however, throughout the remainder of week continuing developments surrounding Greece debt crisis and positive economic data from US sent the pair lower to close out the week at 1.0849.
Comparing to the previous week, survey participants' outlook for the pair is pessimistic. Now, 56.6% of all traders are bearish, compared to last week's 37.5%, however, the average expected closing price for Friday of this week is 1.088, slightly above Monday's opening price. According to Jingesh "The EUR/USD pair is bearish on essentially every time frame, however, it is facing some major daily support, and the US Dollar Index is pushing up against heights. With a light data week ahead for the US, the expectation here is that it will not break support this week." On the contrast, Stix believes that the pair is "consolidating currently" and the pair nears the end of the bearish trend.
Among important data this week, the Greek government will vote on Wednesday to decide on a second package of prerequisites for further financial assistance. On Thursday, traders should pay attention to US weekly unemployment claims, however, the week will be closed out by flash manufacturing PMI's from Europe.
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