- Opened positions on gold are bullish (61% long / 39% short)
- The closest resistance for the yellow metal is currently located at 1,193
- At the same time, the closest support for the bullion is placed at 1,177
- Upcoming events on June 5: Germany Factory Orders (Apr), Euro zone GDP (Q1), US Non-Farm Payrolls (May) and Unemployment Rate (May), Canada Net Change in Employment and Unemployment Rate (May)
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Gold tumbled to near the lowest level in three weeks on Thursday amid encouraging US economic data and signs of progress in the Greek debt crisis. The US trade deficit shrank in April, while US private employers picked up their hiring in May following a pullback the previous month.
Safe-haven support for bullion from Greece's debt crisis also weakened amid signs that the Greek government could be moving closer to a deal with its international creditors. Following late-night talks with senior EU officials in Brussels, Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras said a deal with creditors was "within sight" and that Athens would make a payment due to the IMF on Friday.
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Canadian, US employment numbers to be closely watched on June 5
The labour market statistics will be released both in the US and Canada on Friday. Numbers, which will include employment change and jobless rates for these countries, are expected to be officially published at 12:30 PM GMT. At the same time, average market expectations say that there are going to be little changes in labour market conditions. Canadian unemployment rate is forecasted to stay flat at 6.8%, with American one to be unchanged at 5.4%.Read More: Fundamental Analysis
XAU/USD develops inside bearish wedge pattern on daily chart
Since the second quarter of 2013, the bullion has been developing inside the falling wedge pattern, meaning that trading range is decreasing as time goes on. Two pattern's boundaries are represented by the upper trend-line around 1,270 and pattern's support at 1,115. Among recent developments, in March 2015 the yellow metal resumed gaining value, even without touching the lower trend-line. In the foreseeable future gains are likely to be limited and the bullion should be driven by the 200-day SMA around 1,210 with a slight bearish bias. Some short-term gains in the direction of the long-term downtrend (1,270) are not completely off the table, but bears are eventually going to overtake a lead and drive the metal back to the south. The overall negative tendency for Gold seems to be the case in the long run, while at the end of this year the precious metal should to consolidate around 1,150, in case the present trend persists.Daily chart
© Dukascopy Bank SA
The bullion registered a noticeable decline in price yesterday, while falling slightly below the 1,185 mark. At the same time, XAU/USD still remains in the wide range between two weekly pivot points, the weekly PP at 1,193 and weekly S1 at 1,177. Only a development beyond one of these lines will provide a clearer near-term outlook for the yellow metal. On the other hand, daily technical indicators assume that gold may continue developing mainly sideways, even though the medium and long-term studies are giving signals to sell the metal at the moment.
Hourly chart
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SWFX opened positions on gold are positive, bullish advantage rises
However, OANDA's bulls are in the safe majority with 70.86% of all current positions. Gold's sentiment at OANDA is the second most positive among all major currency pairs at the moment. Saxo Bank market participants are also optimistic with respect to the precious metal, as there were 69% of bullish trades registered by 5:30 AM GMT on June 4, up from 63% yesterday.
Spreads (avg,pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Traders, who were asked regarding their longer-term views on XAU/USD between May 4 and June 4 expect, on average, to see Gold trading around 1,225 by the end of September. At the same time, 59% of them believe the bullion will be even strongly above 1,200 in three months, while 28% of traders surveyed forecast the bullion to trade in the range between 1,050 and 1,200.
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