- Commands to buy the Euro versus the US Dollar in 100-pip range are slightly negative (49% bullish / 51% bearish)
- The closest resistance for this pair is located at 1.1050
- At the same time, the closest support is currently placed at 1.0960
- Upcoming events on April 30: Germany Retail Sales (Mar) and Unemployment Change (Apr), Euro zone Final CPI (Apr) and Unemployment Rate (Mar), US Unemployment Claims (Apr 24) and Personal Spending (Mar)
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The number of unemployed in France hit a record high in March, following a timid drop in the beginning of the year and fuelling fears of more problems in the country. Yet, the number of unemployed rose 0.4% last month to 3,509,800. French Premier Manuel Valls expected a major drop in unemployment to occur if France's GDP reaches around 1.5%, a level that he expects to be hit as soon as this year.
Meanwhile, in another troubled Euro zone country, Greece, Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras said he was confident the debt deal with international creditors will be reached within two weeks after reshuffling his negotiating team and dismissing Yanis Varoufakis, Greece's Finance Minister, who infuriated Euro zone officials last week in Riga.
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Euro zone CPI expected to be revised upwards
Thursday of the current week will be important in terms of broad range of data on consumer prices and labour market in different countries. While the jobless rate in Germany is forecasted to remain stable, the pan-Euro area's unemployment is predicted to decrease slightly from 11.3% to 11.2% in March. Alongside, the Euro zone's consumer prices have probably been unchanged in April, and the final CPI data may show an upward revision from -0.1% to zero.Read More: Fundamental Analysis
EUR/USD likely to lose value with growing trading range
Judging from EUR/USD's developments that took place since July of the previous year, the pair is clearly trading downwards with a significant negative slope. At the same time, mid-March movements of the Euro have also confirmed a widening trading range of this currency pair, meaning it is currently hovering inside the broadening falling wedge pattern. By the end of June, the common European currency may surge up to the 1.13 mark where 100-day SMA and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement will most probably push the cross back in the direction of 1-1.05 area. In the meantime, the Euro may hit 1:1 against the US Dollar as soon as September-October. However, a presence of dense zone of technical levels may also considerably influence the time-frame for this important event.Daily chart
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Yesterday, the EUR/USD currency pair has eventually penetrated one of the most important short-term resistances, represented by 55-day SMA at 1.0926. The pair has therefore hit its highest level since April 6. Despite that, the Euro closed the trading day at 1.0962 and the next supply remains untouched at the moment. Still, EUR/USD is estimated by be capped by January low at 1.1027. However, in order to refocus attention to bears, the pair should return back at least below the monthly PP at 1.0811.
Hourly chart
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Read More: Technical Analysis
EUR/USD sentiment and pending orders remain negative
Pending orders to buy the Euro against the US Dollar in 100-pip range from the spot surged significantly yesterday, but remained below the neutral level at 49%. It proclaims that in case the EUR/USD rises in value, the pair's potential rebound can be limited by the weekly R2 at 1.1050. On the other hand, a downward development of the Euro is assumed to be extended down to monthly PP at 1.0811 in the medium-term.
Spreads (avg,pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Community is waiting for the Euro to grow against US Dollar this week
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Read More: Community Forecasts
al_dcdemo, one of the community members participating in the survey, motivates his bullish outlook towards the common currency by saying that "the pair will break above 1.10 level in the near future. With weaker data from US, and Europe, which is back on recovery track." Moreover, he supposes that "uncertainty over Greece will be resolved by summer."
Meanwhile, traders, who were asked regarding their longer-term views on EUR/USD between Mar 29 and Apr 29 expect, on average, to see the currency pair around 1.07 by the end of July. Though the majority of participants, namely 50% of them, believe the exchange rate will drop even below 1.06 in ninety days, with 25% alone seeing it below 1.02. Alongside, 25% of those surveyed reckon the price will trade in the range between 1.06 and 1.12 by the end of July of this year.
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