- Commands to buy the Euro versus the US Dollar in 100-pip range are negative (37% bullish / 63% bearish)
- The closest resistance for this pair is located at 1.0724
- At the same time, the closest support is currently placed at 1.06
- Upcoming events on April 24: Germany IFO Business Climate (Apr), US Durable Goods Orders (Mar), Eurogroup Meeting in Riga
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The European Central Bank will continue supplying Greek commercial banks with more cash as long as they stay solvent and have enough collateral, Executive Board Member Benoit Coeure said. Thus, the Frankfurt-based central bank raised the Emergency Liquidity Assistance loans by around 1.5 billion euros to 75.5 billion euros. That was higher than 800 million euros provided in April, and 600 million euros in March.
Meanwhile, retail sales in the Euro zone's third biggest economy, Italy, fell in February. Italy's retail turnover declined 0.2% on a monthly basis, following the 0.2% growth in January. Measured on an annual basis, sales in Italian stores rose 0.1%, compared to the revised 1.2% expansion in retail business in January.
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German IFO index to show economy strengthening
On April 24, the IFO Institute will release its monthly survey on business climate and economic expectations for the Euro zone's largest economy. Both indicators are forecasted to rise slightly, showing strength of German economy as the region recovers after the years of low growth. In the meantime, US durable goods orders are expected to gain 0.8% in March, up from -1.4% in February.Read More: Fundamental Analysis
EUR/USD likely to lose value with growing trading range
Judging from EUR/USD's developments that took place since July of the previous year, the pair is clearly trading downwards with a significant negative slope. At the same time, mid-March movements of the Euro have also confirmed a widening trading range of this currency pair, meaning it is currently hovering inside the broadening falling wedge pattern. By the end of June, the common European currency may surge up to the 1.13 mark where 100-day SMA and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement will most probably push the cross back in the direction of 1-1.05 area. In the meantime, the Euro may hit 1:1 against the US Dollar as soon as September-October. However, a presence of dense zone of technical levels may also considerably influence the time-frame for this important event.Daily chart
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On Wednesday, EUR/USD has mostly repeated the scenario of Tuesday's development. The common currency attempted to jump above 2003 low/20-day SMA, but failed eventually and returned back towards weekly PP at 1.0724. For now the pair is trading just below this mark, and in case it falls beyond 1.07, then the probability of even stronger slump will increase significantly. The medium-term target, in turn, is still located at 1.06 (weekly S1), while technical indicators on all time-frames are pointing downwards.
Hourly chart
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Read More: Technical Analysis
EUR/USD sentiment and pending orders stay negative
Pending orders to buy the Euro against the US Dollar in 100-pip range from the spot decreased to 37% from yesterday, down five percentage points. It proclaims that in case the EUR/USD rises in value, the pair's potential rebound can be limited by the monthly PP at 1.0811. On the other hand, a downward development of the Euro is assumed to be extended down to weekly S1 at 1.06.
Spreads (avg,pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Community is waiting for the Euro to trade mostly sideways this week
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Read More: Community Forecasts
Likerty, one of the community members participating in the survey, motivates his bullish outlook towards the common currency by saying that "the Euro still could test 1.0710/690 before taking higher." On the other hand, Daytrader21 is more bearish on the Euro. He points out that there is going to be "a range-bound action with resistance standing at 1.0800 and support at previous week's low around 1.0400 level."
Meanwhile, traders, who were asked regarding their longer-term views on EUR/USD between Mar 23 and Apr 23 expect, on average, to see the currency pair around 1.07 by the end of July. Though the majority of participants, namely 54% of them, believe the exchange rate will drop even below 1.06 in ninety days, with 27% alone seeing it below 1.02. Alongside, 24% of those surveyed reckon the price will trade in the range between 1.06 and 1.12 by the end of July of this year.
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