- Opened positions on Gold remain strongly positive (71% bullish / 29% bearish)
- The closest resistance for the yellow metal is currently located at 1,195
- At the same time, the closest support for the bullion is placed at 1,191
- Upcoming events on April 16: Italy Trade Balance (Feb), US Unemployment Claims (Apr 3) and Building Permits (Mar), Australia Employment Change and Unemployment Rate (Mar), China Foreign Direct Investment (Mar)
© Dukascopy Bank SA
Gold continued to slide for a third consecutive trading session, breaking the key $1,200 level and trading in a tight range above $1190 on the mixed US data. In addition to that, China, the world's largest producer and second-biggest consumer of the precious metal, posted the lowest quarterly pace of growth in six years, confirming concerns the world's second biggest economy has been slowing in the beginning of 2015. China's gross domestic product rose 7% from a year earlier, in line with economists' forecasts.
US retail sales rebounded in March as consumers stepped up purchases of cars and other goods, adding to signs that a precipitous slowdown in growth in the beginning of the year was temporary. Sales of US retailers rose 0.9% to a seasonally adjusted $441.4 billion in the reported month, the Commerce Department said. That was the biggest monthly increase in a year, but against economists' expectations for a 1% gain.
Watch More: Dukascopy TV
Australian labour market data to be in focus on Thursday
For the second day in a row, the major Gold's fundamental drivers are most likely going to come from Asia. At first, Australia Bureau of Statistics will release data on employment change, as well as participation and jobless rates. However, all of them are forecasted to develop in a moderate positive way and unemployment is likely to remain at 6.3% level. Following that, markets will get statistics on FDI in China, which will be in focus after disappointing GDP numbers on Wednesday.Read More: Fundamental Analysis
XAU/USD develops inside bearish wedge pattern on daily chart
Since the second quarter of 2013, the bullion has been developing inside the falling wedge pattern, meaning that trading range is decreasing as time goes on. In March 2014, however, the yellow metal resumed gaining value, even without touching the lower trend-line which is currently located around 1,100. Therefore, towards the end of April the bullion is likely to approach the upper boundary of this pattern just below 1,280 where bears are forecasted to overtake a lead and drive the metal back to the south. The overall negative trend for Gold seems also inevitable in the long-term future, while at the end of this year the precious metal is likely to consolidate around 1,150, in case the present trend persists.Daily chart
© Dukascopy Bank SA
Yesterday, XAU/USD escaped the narrow range, in which the cross was bounded for the past two trading days. This violation took place to the downside and the bullion breached both 20-day SMA and weekly S1 at 1,195 and 1,191, respectively. At the same time, the next demand area at 1,183 (monthly PP) sent the yellow metal back above 1,190. Nonetheless, this move is showing bearish intentions of Gold for the medium-term, while weekly and monthly technical indicators suggest the bearish scenario is inevitable. However, on a daily basis we may observe attempts to trade higher around 1,200.
Hourly chart
© Dukascopy Bank SA
Read More: Technical Analysis
SWFX opened positions on Gold remain strongly positive
Meanwhile, OANDA's bulls continue to enjoy a firm majority as their share of total opened positions stays at 63.37% at the moment, and Gold's sentiment there is currently the fifth most positive among all major currency pairs. Saxo Bank market participants, in turn, are also confident with respect to the precious metal, as there are 61% of bullish positions registered by 5:30am GMT on April 15.
Spreads (avg,pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Traders, who were asked regarding their longer-term views on XAU/USD between Mar 15 and Apr 15 expect, on average, to see Gold trading around 1,250 by the end of July. At the same time, 58% of them believe the bullion will be strongly above this mark in three months, while 29% of traders surveyed forecast the bullion to trade in the range between 1,100 and 1,250.
© Dukascopy Bank SA