- Commands to buy the Euro versus the US Dollar in 100-pip range are negative (37% bullish / 63% bearish)
- The closest resistance for this pair is located at 1.0759
- At the same time, the closest support is currently placed at 1.0589
- Upcoming events on April 13: France Current Account (Jan), Italy Industrial Production (Mar)
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Germany, the Euro zone's number one economy, logged a higher than expected trade surplus in February. Germany's foreign trade generated a non-seasonally adjusted surplus of 19.2 billion euros in the reported month, up from 15.9 billion euros posted a month earlier. Measured on a non-seasonally adjusted annual basis, exports soared 3.9% to 95.7 billion euros in February, while imports rose 0.8% to 76.5 billion euros.
Meanwhile, in Greece the unemployment rate unexpectedly declined to the lowest level since December 2012, but still remained the highest in the EU. The jobless rate ticked down to 25.7% in February, an improvement from 26.0% seen in January.
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EUR/USD likely to lose value with growing trading range
Judging from EUR/USD's developments that took place since July of the previous year, the pair is clearly trading downwards with a significant negative slope. At the same time, mid-March movements of the Euro have also confirmed a widening trading range of this currency pair, meaning it is currently hovering inside the broadening falling wedge pattern. By the end of April, the common European currency is expected to surge up to the 1.17 mark where 2005 low and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement will most probably push the cross back in the direction of 1-1.05 area. In the meantime, the Euro may hit 1:1 against the US Dollar as soon as by the end of July 2015. However, a presence of dense zone of technical levels may also considerably influence the time-frame for this important event.Daily chart
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Eventually, the EUR/USD currency pair dropped below one of the strongest support levels yesterday, which is represented by 2003 low at 1.0759. As a result of that, pair's bears cleared the way towards the next demand area, and the space down to 1.0589 became free. The single currency decided to decline as low as 1.0650 on Thursday, thus posting a daily decrease of more than 100 pips. Daily technical studies are mixed, while medium and long-term ones suggest the pair will head in the direction of weekly S2 below 1.06.
Hourly chart
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Read More: Technical Analysis
EUR/USD sentiment jumps above 50%, pending orders are negative
On the other hand, pending orders to buy the Euro against the US Dollar in 100-pip range from the spot plunged even further to reach just 37% today, thus accumulating a loss of 18% over this week. It proclaims that in case the EUR/USD rises in value, the pair's potential rebound can be limited by the 2003 low at 1.0759. On the other hand, a downward development of the Euro is assumed to be extended below the Bollinger band at 1.0588.
Spreads (avg,pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Community is waiting for the Euro to rebound considerably this week
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Read More: Community Forecasts
Mohands_moslim, one of the community members participating in the survey, motivates his bullish outlook towards the common currency by saying that "the EUR/USD is going to continue retracement up to 1.1244 and low at 1.10960." On the other hand, pipx has an opposite view on the situation, suggesting that "The EUR will continue to weaken and it might erase the gains which were made during the previous week."
Meanwhile, traders, who were asked regarding their longer-term views on EUR/USD between Mar 10 and Apr 10 expect, on average, to see the currency pair around 1.07 by the end of July. Though the majority of participants, namely 54% of them, believe the exchange rate will drop even below 1.06 in ninety days, with 29% alone seeing it below 1.02. Alongside, 20% of those surveyed reckon the price will trade in the range between 1.06 and 1.12 by the end of July of this year.
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