- Commands to buy the Euro versus the US Dollar in 100-pip range are negative (47% bullish / 53% bearish)
- The closest resistance for this pair is located at 1.1094
- At the same time, the closest support is currently placed at 1.0903
- Upcoming events on April 8: Germany Factory Orders (Jan), France Trade Balance (Feb), Euro zone Retail Sales (Mar), US FOMC Meeting Minutes
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The ECB's official account of the last policy meeting showed the central bank may change the pace of its unprecedented bond-buying programme. While Governing Council members currently consider the scope of the quantitative-easing programme appropriate, this assessment may change over time as the latest economic estimates are surrounded by higher-than-usual uncertainty. The ECB predicted consumer prices would remain unchanged this year before climbing to 1.8% in 2017.
Meanwhile, Greece proposed its most comprehensive reform plan to its creditors during teleconference talks with the Euro Working Group, but has yet to receive any remaining bailout funds. The plan consists of a 26-page list of reform proposals covering taxation, privatisations, public sector, labour market, healthcare, and etc. The proposals were discussed by the Euro Working Group; however, there was no real breakthrough resulting in unlocking any bailout funds Greece.
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FOMC to publish meeting accounts on April 8
Among fundamental news tomorrow, Germany and France are going to release factory orders and trade balance numbers, respectively. Moreover, markets are also expecting to see the retail sales data from the Euro zone in March, while later the Fed will publish minutes of FOMC's last meeting that took place at the end of previous month.Read More: Fundamental Analysis
EUR/USD likely to lose value with growing trading range
Judging from EUR/USD's developments that took place since July of the previous year, the pair is clearly trading downwards with a significant negative slope. At the same time, mid-March movements of the Euro have also confirmed a widening trading range of this currency pair, meaning it is currently hovering inside the broadening falling wedge pattern. By the end of April, the common European currency is expected to surge up to the 1.17 mark where 2005 low and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement will most probably push the cross back in the direction of 1-1.05 area. In the meantime, the Euro may hit 1:1 against the US Dollar as soon as by the end of July 2015. However, a presence of dense zone of technical levels may also considerably influence the time-frame for this important event.Daily chart
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It seems that bears have won yesterday's battle in moving EUR/USD in the direction they wished. They managed to send the Euro towards Dec-Apr down-trend, which is located just above the major level of 1.09. At the same time, this negative-sloping line is supported both by 20-day SMA and weekly PP. Therefore, an easy decline is highly unlikely to become a realistic scenario in the near-term. However, if eventually the pair drives below this demand area, markets will expect it to lose additional 100 pips down to monthly PP at 1.0811.
Hourly chart
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Read More: Technical Analysis
EUR/USD sentiment and pending orders are negative
On the other hand, pending orders to buy the Euro against the US Dollar in 100-pip range from the spot are back below the perfect balance, as they declined eight percentage points from Monday to reach 47% today. It proclaims that in case the EUR/USD rises in value, the pair's potential rebound can be limited by the weekly R1 at 1.1094. On the other hand, a downward development of the Euro is assumed to be extended down to 2003 low at 1.0759.
Spreads (avg,pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Meanwhile, traders, who were asked regarding their longer-term views on EUR/USD between Mar 7 and Apr 7 expect, on average, to see the currency pair at 1.07 by the end of July. Though the majority of participants, namely 55% of them, believe the exchange rate will drop even below 1.06 in ninety days, with 30% alone seeing it below 1.02. Alongside, 16% of those surveyed reckon the price will trade in the range between 1.06 and 1.12 by the end of July of this year.
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