- Opened positions on Gold remain positive (64% bullish / 36% bearish)
- The closest resistance for the yellow metal is currently located at 1,199
- At the same time, the closest support for the bullion is placed at 1,187
- Upcoming events on March 31: Germany Retail Sales (Feb) and Unemployment Change (Mar), Italy Unemployment (Feb), France Consumer Spending (Feb), Euro zone CPI (Mar) and Unemployment Rate (Feb), US Consumer Confidence (Mar), Japan Housing Starts (Feb), Australia ANZ Business Confidence (Feb), UK Final GDP (Q4), Canada GDP (Jan)
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American economy rose slightly less when compared with analysts' expectations in the last quarter of the previous year, mostly led by upbeat consumer spending which was the highest in eight years. GDP added 2.2% on the annual basis, according to the final reading published on Friday. Economists called for a 2.4% average gain after the preliminary data also showed a 2.2% increase.
However, experts suggest the economy could grow better, but several negative factors weighed on exports and consumer spending during October-December period. Among them, US Dollar has been in a constant up-trend since the middle of last year, thus making American exports less attractive over the time, while imports has seen an opportunity to increase.
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Fundamentals to be major Gold drivers on Tuesday
Tomorrow, there will be a bunch of fundamental data released, which may have considerable impact on commodity markets and Gold, in particular. Among some of that statistics, German retail sales have probably decreased 0.8% in February after a strong surge of 2.9% a month before. However, this country is likely to show a continuous improvement on the labour market. Moreover, Britain and Canada are going to publish their final GDP numbers for Q4 and January, respectively.Read More: Fundamental Analysis
XAU/USD develops inside bearish wedge pattern on daily chart
Since the second quarter of 2013, the bullion has been developing inside the falling wedge pattern, meaning that trading range is decreasing as time goes on. In March 2014, however, the yellow metal resumed gaining value, even without touching the lower trend-line which is currently located around 1,100. Therefore, towards the end of April the bullion is likely to approach the upper boundary of this pattern just below 1,280 where bears are forecasted to overtake a lead and drive the metal back to the south. The overall negative trend for Gold seems also inevitable in the long-term future, while at the end of this year the precious metal is likely to consolidate around 1,150, in case the present trend persists.Daily chart
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Despite still trading above the long-term downtrend line at the moment, XAU/USD continues to show some bearish intentions on Monday, following a first decline in eight days back on Friday. The yellow metal returned below the 1,200 round level and weekly PP at 1,199. Technical indicators suggest the cross will plunge even further in the medium and long-term. However, daily studies are strongly positive right now, meaning that the bullion's short-term revival is not completely off the table.
Hourly chart
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SWFX opened positions remain positive
Meanwhile, OANDA's bulls continue to enjoy a firm majority as their share of total opened trades stays at 63.30% at the moment, a drop of more than five percentage points from last Friday. Gold's sentiment is currently the fourth most positive among major currency pairs at OANDA. In addition, SaxoGroup market participants are also positive with respect to the yellow metal, as there are 67% of bullish positions registered by 5:30 GMT on March 30.
Spreads (avg,pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Traders, who were asked regarding their longer-term views on XAU/USD between Feb 30 and Mar 30 expect, on average, to see Gold trading at 1,200 by the end of June. At the same time, 51% of them still believe the bullion will be strongly above this mark in three months, while 30% of traders surveyed forecast the bullion to trade in the range between 1,050 and 1,200.
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