Expert Commentary

Canadian GDP in the Q4 of 2017
Mon, 05 Mar 2018 13:42:34 GMT
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
 
© Paul Ferley
  It is a little bit weaker than the 2.5 percent (growth) that they (the Bank of Canada) last projected for the fourth quarter, so it is not going to imply any urgency to continue to tighten. But they are going to make sure this more moderate growth rate is maintained, so eventually I think you will see further tightening by the Bank of Canada.
  -  Paul Ferley, Assistant Chief Economist at Royal Bank of Canada
© Andrew Kelvin
We were looking for the deceleration in growth just relative to first half of 2017. We saw consumption decelerate but it remains at a fairly healthy pace. There was a big boost in residential investment which is unlikely to be sustained going forward. 
  - Andrew Kelvin, Senior Rates Strategist at TD Securities
Gross Domestic Product in Canada rose slightly less than expected in the Q4 of 2017, letting Canada's economy not to overheat and raising fairly positive response among experts. 

The GDP rose by 1.7%, only 0.3% below the forecast, based on the data released by the official sources. Nevertheless, Paul Ferley, Assistant Chief Economist at Royal Bank of Canada, had forecast different numbers, saying 2.5% growth was likely to be reached in the Q4 instead of 2.0% rate eyed by most of the experts. 

According to the official report, business investment and residential structures showed more strength than usual; however, Andrew Kelvin, Senior Rates Strategist at TD Securities, points out that this boost is unlikely to be sustained going forward.

Analysing his statement, a conclusion that the next quarter's GDP could be slowed down can be drawn.

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