Expert Commentary

Does the slowdown in the Euro zone's consumer inflation growth hampers the ECB hawkish stance to end QE?
Mon, 08 Jan 2018 08:04:51 GMT
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
 
© Nick Kounis
"It could be something of a roller-coaster ride for headline inflation because of oil prices, but what
 remains crucial is core. If we're
going to see flattish core inflation prints - and if we see flattish wage prints -  then that would make the ECB cautious."
 - Nick Kounis, head of financial markets research,  ABN Amro, Amsterdam 
© Bert Colijn
"The euroboom is everywhere but in the inflation rate. The ECB is
unlikely to change course early in the year, even if economic data continues to surprise on the
upside."
- Bert Colijn, senior euro-zone economist,
ING Groep NV, Amsterdam 

The ECB policymakers attempted to quit the era of post-crisis stimulus measures, but were forced to wait longer until price pressures picks up.  

Despite strong economic expansion, the consumer price growth in the Euro zone slowed to 1.4% by the end of 2017, lagging behind the Central Bank's 2% target. Recent data underlined difficulties for the European Central Bank to decide when to stop QE, even with Governing Council members' warnings of the risks of postponing its decision for long. The next Central Bank's policy meeting is scheduled for January 25. 

Whether price and wage pressures may increase given the EZ solid economic growth, Germany's record-low unemployment and improvements in Spanish labour market is the question needed to be considered.

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