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Dukascopy Forex Overview: 29-03-2012 - Afternoon

Dukascopy Bank analytic desk report
Published: 29/03/2012 17:53
Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis
Thousands of people in Spain are going participate in the general strike against the new reform.  The reform stipulates reduction of the maximum severance payment to 33 days' remuneration from 45 days currently provided. The measure is aimed at combating with unemployment and saving billions of Euros for the country. However, labour unions claim the legislation will ease firing for the companies.

US unemployment claims increased sharply last week to 359K despite positive sentiment on the market and analyst consensus forecast of 351K. The latest reading indicates a sharp increase of this indicator, as the previous week's reading stood at 348K. 

The average house price in the UK declined by 1% this month while taken annualized rate home prices decreased by 0.9% in March. Experts say the fall was expected as the duty stamp easing that boosted the demand in the beginning of 2012 has expired.  However, in case the overall outlook improves and the government's stimulating measures prove to be successful, the property market may recover.

The retail sales of Japan surged by 3.5% in February on a monthly basis, according to the Trade Ministry. Experts predicted the sales to jump by 1.3% last month. The rise of the sales figures and improving equity markets indicate recovery of the Japanese economy. However, experts do not expect the domestic consumption to gain further because of weak labour market.

The official SNB exchange rate for EUR/CHF is 1.2054 today; yield on 10-year Swiss Confederation bonds decreased to 0.88%. 3-month LIBOR CHF stands at 0.11%, and is within the target range of 0.00-0.25%. Swiss SMI stock index has lost 0.73% since the opening bell, and is currently fluctuating around 6204 points.
Dukascopy Technical Analysis
Daily maximum: 1.3345
Daily minimum: 1.3252
EUR/USD slumped today as the US unemployment claims fell to lowest since April 2008 (359K last week/364K previous week). Daily Resistance: 1.3367; 1.3418; 1.3463. Daily Support: 1.3271; 1.3226; 1.3175. Daily Bias: Bullish.

Daily maximum: 110.45
Daily minimum: 108.99
The common European currency declined versus the Japanese yen today after the S&P representative made a statementthat Greece might require a third bailout to restrure its debt. Daily Resistance: 110.91; 111.43; 111.96. Daily Support: 109.86; 109.33; 108.81. Daily Bias: Bullish.

Daily maximum: 1.5933
Daily minimum: 1.5861
Sterling bounced plunged today versus the greenback as the number of mortgage approvals in the UK fell more than expected (49K act./59K est.) and monthly net lending to individuals data for February revealed a decline (1.6B February/1.8B January). Daily Resistance: 1.5954; 1.6020; 1.6077. Daily Support: 1.5831; 1.5774; 1.5708. Daily Bias: Neutral.

Daily maximum: 82.87
Daily minimum: 82.10
A mild plummet in the US unemployment claims pushed the pair higher today (359K last week/364K previous week). Daily Resistance: 83.19; 83.51; 83.80. Daily Support: 82.58; 82.29; 81.97. Daily Bias: Strongly bearish.

Daily maximum: 0.9093
Daily minimum: 0.9033
USD/CHF rose today as the final US GDP came out in line with the analysts' estimates (3.0% act./3.0% est.) and and the US employment added 6K more jobs last week compared to the previous one. Daily Resistance: 0.9082; 0.9114; 0.9147. Daily Support: 0.9017; 0.8984; 0.8952. Daily Bias: Strongly bearish.
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Expert Commentary
"There is a triangular relationship between Euro, Dollar and Swiss Franc: if one goes down, the other goes up"
Gareth Berry on USD/CHF and EUR/CHF. >>

"GDP growth will be around -1.5% by the end of 2012"
Dukascopy asked Santiago Carbó-Valverde, Professor of Economics at University of Granada in Spain and Consultant at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, to evaluate the current economic situation in Spain and share his outlook for the Spanish economy for the 2012. >>

"It will take at least 10 years for the Yuan to be a global currency"
For more than three years, China has been developing a strategic plan to globalize the Yuan. It was announced last week , that China is planning to extend the Yuan-denominated loans to BRICS countries, which would be a significant step towards increasing the "people's currency" role in cross-border trade settlement. >>
Press Review
OECD Sees Europe, U.S. Drifting Apart
The economies of Europe and North America will diverge in the first half of this year, with European budget cuts dragging on demand while the U.S. economic recovery picking up steam, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said in a report published Thursday.

Jobless Claims in U.S. Decline to Lowest Since April 2008
The number of Americans seeking unemployment benefits dropped last week to the lowest level in almost four years, adding to evidence of an improving U.S. labor market. .

Asia & Pacific
Investors Brace for China's First Bond Default
China's fledgling corporate debt market will face a watershed moment next month, when an insolvent manufacturer of chemical fibers may become the first company in the brief history of the country's bond market to default on its obligations. .
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Market Research
Currency Index & Volatility
During the last five trading days the currency index of the British Pound has wandered around 105, but its value returned to the initial level (100) at the very end. In other words, the Sterling proved to be stable relative to the other major currencies and reluctant to change.
Dukascopy Bank Sentiment Index
The current and six-month global economic outlooks improved for a second consecutive month in February. Gauges assessing the economic expectations advanced to 0.48 and 0.52, according to a poll conducted by Dukascopy Bank SA. The three-year economic outlook rose to 0.66 from 0.64 in January.
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Global Stock Market Review
S&P 500 index extended downward path on Wednesday as oil prices tumbled and orders for durable goods in US rose only 2.2% compared to predicted 2.9% gain. US benchmark gauge lost 0.49% or 6.98 points and closed at 1,405.54.

Dow Jones Industrial Average
Dow Jones Industrial Average index traded lower on Wednesday weighed down by production-oriented Alcoa which tumbled 2.3% and Caterpillar which fell 3.5%. Overall the index shed 0.54% or 71.52 points and settled at 13,126.21 with seven out of nine sectors posting losses.

FTSE 100
FTSE 100 dropped on Thursday as data showed home prices declined in March and oil prices tumbled. UK retailers fell after their Swedish rival H&M posted disappointing 1st quarter results.
Commodity Overview
Precious Metals
Precious metals tumbled on Wednesday amid weaker equities and firmer US Dollar. The commodity group lacked clear direction over the week as further actions of the Fed stayed uncertain.
Industrial Metals
Industry metals followed a downward trend on Wednesday, being pressured by broadly stronger US Dollar. Disappointing durable goods data that undermined confidence in stable US recovery also weighted down on the base metals pack.
Energy commodities apart from heating oil declined on Wednesday on easing supply and lingering demand concerns. Broadly stronger US Dollar and weaker global equities also added to the pessimistic mood of the commodity group.
Agricultural commodities retreated on Wednesday on the firmer US Dollar and improved prospects on the US crops. Wheat approached five-year low amid speculation about ample US supplies as recent rainfalls are likely to boost winter harvest
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Trade Pattern Idea
Emerging Pattern: GBP/USD
GBP/USD was traded in a wide range during the last month and has formed a Channel Up pattern on 4H chart. The formation has 60% quality along with 100% magnitude in a 80-bar period.Cable tested its resistance level twice and bounced off from $1.6000 to its support level near $1.5849.
Economic Research
The Dukascopy Bank research department is launching a series of research devoted to various traders’ perceptions and general myths that are popular among investors. We start the series with research on commodity currencies (currencies of countries rich in natural resources, with the Canadian, the Australian, and the New Zealand dollars being the most liquid of them), as they are believed to be highly linked to the movements in physical commodity prices.
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This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy Bank SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.


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