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Dukascopy Forex Overview: 27-03-2012 - Morning

Dukascopy Bank analytic desk report
Published: 27/03/2012 10:11
Dukascopy Technical Analysis
"If buying of Treasurys gains steam and bond yields fall in the wake of Monday's Bernanke's comments, the dollar could face more pressure against currencies such as the euro"
- Societe Generale (based on CNBC)
Even though the pair is trading slightly above the 1.3291/1.3325 area, it is expected to move southwards in the nearest future as the EU debt risks have not been swept away completely.

"The Fed’s stance to support the economic recovery through policy easing and adding liquidity to the market is helping boost sentiment"
- Shinkin Asset Management Co. (based on Bloomberg)
EUR/JPY rallied above the 110 level and eased the risks of bearish reversal.

"This is more of a dollar move than a sterling move. It feels like the market was slightly overdone in being long of dollars and it's time to unwind some of that"
- UBS (based on Reuters)
GBP/USD committed a strong bullish reversal yesterday and the pair is likely to retest the recent high at 1.5992.

"Bernanke's comments were more dovish than markets expected and that's being reflected in the dollar"
- Standard Chartered (based on WSJ)
The pair held above the 82 key level and is attempting to retain the bullish momentum.

"It would be fatal if the minimum exchange rate between EUR and CHF was suddenly removed"
- Swiss Ministry of Finance (based on Bloomberg)
USD/CHF pierced the 0.9066 level yesterday and although the pair is expected to recover further to 0.9186 (20-day ma), failure to do so would lead to the 0.9015 (4-month support level) and 0.8931 (February low).
Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis
"Today’s Ifo report is “reassuring evidence that the German economy will not be thrown off track again due to the recent rise in oil prices or lingering euro-zone debt crisis risks"
- Timo Klein, senior German economist at IHS Global Insight
German business confidence rose to an eight-month high in March, defying fears that the euro zone’s largest economy has slipped into recession.

"We cannot yet be sure that the recent pace of improvement in the labor market will be sustained"
- Ben Bernanke, Federal Reserve Chairman
The U.S. economy needs to grow more rapidly to bring the unemployment rate down, said  Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke.

"We’re seeing a relatively good start to the week"
- Angus Campbell, head of sales at Capital Spreads 
U.K. stocks rose on Monday after a report showed that German Ifo business confidence rose to an eight-month high in March.

"The market is anticipating a third round of quantitative easing [in the U.S.]"
- Jonathan Sudaria, a trader at Capital Spreads
Swiss stocks fell for a fifth consecutive day on Friday, after a report showed purchases of new homes in the U.S. declined.

"Commodity prices including oil have risen, which is a catalyst for stronger commodity-related shares such as trading firms"
- Ryuta Otsuka, a strategist at Toyo Securities Co.
Japanese stocks were little changed on Monday after higher commodity prices offset decrease in U.S. home sales.
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Expert Commentary
"It will take at least 10 years for the Yuan to be a global currency"
For more than three years, China has been developing a strategic plan to globalize the Yuan. It was announced last week , that China is planning to extend the Yuan-denominated loans to BRICS countries, which would be a significant step towards increasing the "people's currency" role in cross-border trade settlement. >>

"For EUR/USD we have a target of 1.25 on a short-term horizon, and for the end of September ‘12 we expect EUR/USD to reach 1.30"
C. Hecht, Currency Strategist at Commerzbank, evaluated the greenback’s performance and gave a forecast for the US Dollar against the basket of currencies for a short and long term. >>

"The Japan’s trade deficit effect on FX will be limited. Therefore, the Yen weakness will reduce in the second half of the year"
Today Dukascopy interviewed the Head of FX Strategy at JP Morgan Chase & Co in Singapore concerning a forecast for ASD/JPY, EUR/JPY and USD/JPY. >>
Press Review
Draghi Says Governments Must Stick to Decisive Measures
European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said euro-region governments should continue to take “decisive measures” after the central bank’s liquidity provisions helped restore investor confidence.

Bernanke says U.S. needs faster growth
The U.S. economy needs to grow more quickly to bring the unemployment rate down further, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said on Monday, defending the central bank's policy of very low interest rates.

Asia & Pacific
China Jan-Feb industry profits dip as slowdown bites
China's industrial firms suffered a rare annual drop in profits in the first two months of 2012 mainly in petrochemicals, metals and auto companies, the latest signs of weakening momentum in the world's No. 2 economy.
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Market Research
Currency Index & Volatility
During the last five trading days the currency index of the British Pound has wandered around 105, but its value returned to the initial level (100) at the very end. In other words, the Sterling proved to be stable relative to the other major currencies and reluctant to change.
Dukascopy Bank Sentiment Index
Current global economic outlook
The current and six-month global economic outlooks improved for a second consecutive month in February. Gauges assessing the economic expectations advanced to 0.48 and 0.52, according to a poll conducted by Dukascopy Bank SA. The three-year economic outlook rose to 0.66 from 0.64 in January.
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Global Stock Market Review
After three straight red sessions S&P 500 index retreated and traded slightly higher on Friday supported by financial and energy shares.

Dow Jones Industrial Average
Dow Jones Industrial Average index edged higher on Friday though the gains were limited as data showed the sales of new homes in US unexpectedly fell 1.6% in February.

FTSE 100
British FTSE 100 recovered from last week’s drop and edged higher on Monday led by energy stocks.
Commodity Overview
Precious Metals
Precious metals rebounded on Friday after posting losses for the previous days.
Industrial Metals
Industry metals moved higher on Friday amid firmer equities and softer US Dollar.
Energy commodities apart from heating oil ended the week on the positive note, being bolstered by supply concerns and demand hopes.
Rural commodities except for sugar followed an upward trend on Friday amid weaker US Dollar and risk of crop estimations downgrades in South America
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Trade Pattern Idea
USD/CHF Emerging Pattern: Channel Down
USD/CHF slowed near the support level around 0.9000/34 and has formed a Channel Down pattern. The formation has 46% quality and 49% magnitude in a 58-bar period. The pair is trying to rebound from the support level but has not succeeded yet. The RSI indicator has reached its oversold area, which increases the possibility of a trend change. If the price bounces off the support level, the short-term forecast target for long traders might be around 0.9107

Economic Research
Commodity Currencies: CAD
The Dukascopy Bank research department is launching a series of research devoted to various traders’ perceptions and general myths that are popular among investors. We start the series with research on commodity currencies (currencies of countries rich in natural resources, with the Canadian, the Australian, and the New Zealand dollars being the most liquid of them), as they are believed to be highly linked to the movements in physical commodity prices.
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This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy Bank SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.
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