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Dukascopy Forex Overview: 27-02-2012 - Morning

Dukascopy Bank analytic desk report
Published: 27/02/2012 10:32
Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis
"The German economy is in a soft patch that it is going to overcome"
- Gerd Hassel, an economist at BHF Bank
German economy contracted by 0.2 per cent in the last quarter of 2011 as exports fell, announced the Federal Statistics Office on Friday.

"…  consumers expect the pace of overall economic growth to continue to slowly restore lost jobs …"
- Richard Curtin, survey director at Thomson Reuters / University of Michigan
U.S. consumer confidence improved to a year high in February as consumers became more optimistic on the outlook of the country’s economy, estimated the Thomson Reuters / University of Michigan.

"We’re pretty certain to see a minor positive [GDP] number in the first quarter and so are going to avoid a technical recession"
- Brian Hilliard, an economist at Societe Generale SA
The U.K. gross domestic product fell 0.2 per cent in the fourth quarter, after expanding by 0.6 per cent in the previous three months, the Office for National Statistics said on Friday.

"The risk of a correction is very present as markets have gotten off to a strong start to the year"
- Mikkel Kierkegaard Petersen, a senior equity adviser at Nordea Private Banking
Swiss stocks fell on Friday, led by Nestle SA, Roche Holding AG and Novartis AG.

"Investors will be comfortable the recovery in the U.S. this time around has a better chance of surviving and thriving"
- Prasad Patkar, a fund manager at Platypus Asset Management Ltd.
Japanese stocks rose for a third consecutive day on Friday after a report showed U.S. unemployment claims remained unchanged at 351 thousand, a sign the U.S. economy is on the rebound.
Dukascopy Technical Analysis
"People were using euro shorts to fund long positioning in the Australian and Canadian dollars and now we are seeing those positions get unwound"
- CitiFX (based on CNBC)
Even though at present EUR/USD is aiming for 1.3550, the pair is expected to lose its bullishness along the way to 1.3628, as the long-term outlook remains bearish.

"The euro is rallying and all gauges of risk appetite are pointing to a risk-on week"
- Commonwealth Foreign Exchange Inc. (based on Bloomberg)
Beyond 109.53 (55 week ma) lie resistances 110.18 and 111.57, which should cap the currency couple and halt bullish momentum.

"The potential for further BoE easing, as highlighted by the more dovish-than-expected MPC minutes, will likely keep the pressure on the downside for GBP/USD"
- Morgan Stanley (based on Reuters)
The Cable is now facing a strong resistance area 1.5879/1.5927. It is formed by a number of February highs and 200 day ma.

"Investors are feeling safe to sell the yen because the market thinks the world can avoid the worst scenario in terms of economic growth"
- Ueda Harlow Ltd. (based on Bloomberg)
In the nearest future USD/JPY may struggle at 81.49/63, however, in the long-term the pair is anticipated to continue advancing towards 83.80.

"Fed officials are seeing encouraging but uneven increases in consumer spending and retail sales, and are expecting modest economic growth in 2012"
USD/CHF has already slid to 0.8960 and is likely to maintain its southward direction.
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Expert Commentary
"Welfare is not a “free good”. Nobody can get something for nothing indefinitely"
Richard Timberlake expressed his opinion on Greece in an interview to Dukascopy. >>

"We expect further movement of German economy into the positive area"
Lothar Hessler shared his view with Dukascopy on German economy. >>

"We anticipate the crude oil price to increase up to $120"
Filip Petersson on the price of crude oil and its impact on the EU economy. >>
Press Review
Europe Focus Shifts to Debt-Crisis Firewall
European leaders will shift their focus this week from a Greek bailout to the prospect of bolstering the region’s firewall against debt-crisis contagion as they ready for their latest summit.

Housing, confidence data bolster growth outlook
New U.S. home sales fell in January but upward revisions to the prior months' data and a drop in the supply of properties on the market added to signs of a budding housing recovery.

Asia & Pacific
China’s massive property supply threatens market
A virtual shutdown of China’s new home sales during the Lunar New Year holiday week could signal a major crack in buyer confidence, with some analysts seeing prices heading lower as cash-strapped real-estate developers become more aggressive in their selling.
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Market Research
Currency Index & Volatility
It seems that measures implemented by the BoJ to curb the national currency’s strength have been rather successful. The value of the Japanese Yen has dropped by 2% during the last five days and the downward sloping trend may persist further into the next month.
Dukascopy Bank Sentiment Index
Current global economic outlook
Current and six-month global economic outlook improved modestly by 0.03 to 0.46 in January from December, according to a poll conducted by the Dukascopy Bank SA. Three-year global economic  outlook remains fairly positive with a mean value of 0.64, up 0.01 from December.
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Global Stock Market Review
S&P 500 index retreated on Thursday, after Labor Deparment said the unemployment claims remained unchanged last week.

Dow Jones Industrial Average
Dow Jones Industrial Average index traded higher on Thursday as investors digested news about US employment and 0.7% price increase for US homes in December.

FTSE 100
British FTSE 100 index fluctuated between gains and losses on Friday on different corporate newsDow Jones Industrial Average index traded higher on Thursday as investors digested news about US employment and 0.7% price increase for US homes in December.
Commodity Overview
Precious Metals
Precious metals were mixed on Thursday amid broadly stronger Euro and indications of the global easing of monetary policies.
Industrial Metals
Base metals tumbled on Thursday after the EC cut its growth forecast for the Euro Zone.
Energy pack, excluding natural gas, continued to post strong gains amid escalated supply disruption concerns due to geopolitical tensions between Iran and Western economies.
Rural commodities were mostly higher on Thursday amid broadly weaker US Dollar and adverse weather conditions in South America. 
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This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy Bank SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.


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