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Dukascopy Forex Overview: 10-02-2012 - Afternoon

Dukascopy Bank analytic desk report
Published: 10/02/2012 18:39
Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis
Europe's finance ministers suspended a bailout funding for Greece and left officials in Athens either to ratify lately issued debt cut plan or to leave Euro Zone. Euro area countries will not deliver EUR 130 billion rescue funding until Greece will not implement its austerity plan, said Jean-Claude Juncker, Luxembourg's PM.

US Consumer sentiment (Michigan preliminary index) dropped more-than-expected today to 72.5 points. The consensus forecast stood at 74.8; investors’ sentiment was on the downside today amid continuous Greek turmoil.

British house prices fell to 6-months record high in January on concern about country's economy amid European debt woe. The average value of home in Whales and England dropped 0.2% compared to December, reaching GBP 218.992. On yearly basis house price declined 1.4%. Only in London annual value gained 3%. UK economy slipped 0.2% in 4th quarter of 2011.

The official SNB exchange rate for EUR/CHF is 1.2099 today; yield on 10-year Swiss Confederation bonds increased to 0.83%. 3-month LIBOR CHF stands at 0.07%, and is within the target range of 0.00-0.25%. Swiss SMI stock index has lost 0.88% since the opening bell, and is currently fluctuating around 6114 points.

Jun Azumi, Japanese FM has distanced himself from his earlier comments on Yen intervention. Experts had previously described Azumi’s actions as irresponsible, as he had mentioned precise intervention levels. Earlier this week Azumi claimed he had initiated an intervention to weaken Yen at USDJPY 75.63, and ended it at 78.20.
Dukascopy Technical Analysis
Daily maximum: 1.3290
Daily minimum: 1.3186
EUR/USD has effortlessly pierced through a support at 1.3227/22 (100 day ma) while falling. However, 1.3179/75 did succeed in halting the pair. Therefore we are likely to see a rebound from the latter level until the end of the day. Daily Resistance: 1.3322; 1.3368; 1.3416. Daily Support: 1.3227; 1.3179; 1.3132. Daily Bias: Bullish.

Daily maximum: 103.22
Daily minimum: 102.20
Along with EUR/USD, EUR/JPY has tumbled as well, down through 102.78. The price is now contained within a narrow range between 102.56 (55 day ma) and 102.27. In the short-term we expect the currency pair to return to prior level at 103.05 and higher. Daily Resistance: 103.59; 104.09; 104.91. Daily Support: 102.27; 101.46; 100.96. Daily Bias: Bullish.

Daily maximum: 1.5848
Daily minimum: 1.5736

Daily maximum: 77.80
Daily minimum: 77.51
USD/JPY has been very calm today, without any extensive deviations. In the nearest future the currency couple is not anticipated to drop below a support area at 77.60/50, but to continue slowly crawling higher. Daily Resistance: 77.90; 78.15; 78.58. Daily Support: 77.22; 76.79; 76.53. Daily Bias: Neutral.

Daily maximum: 0.9200
Daily minimum: 0.9102
Despite rocketing up to 0.9200, the outlook for USD/CHF is negative, as resistance at 0.9176 managed to repel the attack of the price. Additional resistance is at 0.9207, beyond which rallies are unlikely. Daily Resistance: 0.9149; 0.9176; 0.9207. Daily Support: 0.9091; 0.9061; 0.9033. Daily Bias: Bearish.
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Expert Commentary
"I do not have a particularly excited forecast for the year, I guess it is going to be rather flattish. My official forecast for the USD/JPY is around 80 at the end of Q4"
Mizuho Corporate Bank: USD/JPY at 80 at the end of Q4 >>

"Undoubtedly, the data on US economy has been recently very good. We are witnessing some upside surprises from data globally, not only in the US. We consider there is a positive momentum that will continue for a bit longer"
RBS: USD/CAD at 98,EUR/USD at 1.35, GBP/USD at 1.62 by Dec 2012. >>

"Germany has lost patience and there is a high probability that Greece will not receive further support"
METZLER on European debt crisis: Greece, Italy, Germanyv and the Euro. >>
Press Review
Greeks strike against IMF/EU austerity before crucial vote
Striking Greek workers denounced a new wave of austerity on Friday as a demand too far by the IMF and EU, but Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos told the nation it had to decide within days whether to take the pain and stay in the euro or not.

Trade Deficit in U.S. Climbs to Six-Month High
The trade deficit in the U.S. widened in December to a six-month high as a strengthening economy prompted bigger gains in imports than exports.

Asia & Pacific
China Imports Slump, Raising Demand Concerns
China's trade in January fell the most since the depths of the financial crisis, raising concerns Lunar New Year factory shutdowns do not fully explain a slump in imports and may instead be evidence of a further faltering in demand.
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Market Research
Currency Index & Volatility
Throughout the last five trading days (Feb 3 - Feb 9) the British Pound had proven to be impervious to the events occurring abroad by closing the observed period with mild gains (+0.1%). However, anticipation of QE had impacted the value of the Sterling to a considerable extent.
Dukascopy Bank Sentiment Index
The current and six-month global economic outlook improved modestly by 0.03 to 0.46 in January from December, according to a poll conducted by Dukascopy Bank SA. The three-year global economic outlook remains fairly positive with a mean value of 0.64, up 0.01 from December.
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Global Stock Market Review
S&P 500 index extended gains on Thursday as Greece claimed it had concluded debt agreement and US jobless claims fell more than expected last week. US benchmark added 0.15% or 1.99 points and closed at 1,351.95, led by technology stocks.

Dow Jones Industrial Average
Dow Jones Industrial Average Index climbed slightly higher on Thursday as fewer Americans applied for unemployment benefits and Greece announced it had finalized debt swap agreement.

FTSE 100
UK FTSE index opened lower on Friday and extend losses during session after European officials said Euro area countries will not deliver EUR 130 billion rescue funding until Greece will not implement its austerity plan.
Commodity Overview
Precious Metals
Gold prices amplified on Thursday after Greece has announced success in the negotiations with the “troika” over the next bailout package. Holdings of the world’s biggest gold supported exchange traded fund, the SPDR trust, soared on the positive news from Europe as well. .
Industrial Metals
Zinc prices demonstrated the largest gains by 1.78% on Thursday as the volumes remain high and the investors persist with the bullish trend. Feeble spot demand is hanging about owing to stockpiling inventories and revoked warranties.
Brent oil prices rose for the eighth consecutive day on the US Energy Department’s announcement of the oil stockpiles increase which was less than expected.
Even though there has been significant crops damage in South America, traders are bullish on the agricultural commodities
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Trade Pattern Idea
Emerging pattern: EURUSD
EUR/USD has formed a downside channel pattern on a daily chart. The pattern has 64% quality and has high magnitude of 83% within 100 bars.
The pair experiencing fast recovery after 16 month record low of 1.2623 in January. The European Central Bank' s liquidity measures soothed credit-crunch concerns, how-ever, Laurence D. Fink, chief executive officer of BlackRock Inc., the world’s largest money manager, said in an interview to Bloomberg that he expects the euro to reach $1.20 this year, which is going to stimulate a recovery in the Eurozone.
Recent Articles
India manufacturing output expands less than predicted
India's factory production grew less than expected in December, indicating weaker domestic demand amid global slowdown. The output at India's plants, mines and utilities added 1.8% on yearly basis compared to a 5.9% advance in November. Economists questioned by Bloomberg predicated a 2.6% improvement.

Aussie depreciates as RBA lowers growth expectations
Australian currency weakened from close to 6-month high after RBA cut its predictions for inflation and GDP this year. Aussie fell 0.7% against greenback to USD 1.0714 and also gave up 0.7% against Japanese Yen to JPY 83.18. Meanwhile New Zealand Dollar lost 0.4% against its US peer to USD 0.8306 and tumbled 0.4% against Yen to JPY 64.50. Currently AUD/USD is trading at 1.0713 while NZD/USD is trading at 0.8305.

Gold drops on Friday
Gold futures to be delivered in April lost 0.4% or USD 7.70 and traded at USD 1,733.50on the Comex division of New York Mercantile Exchange. The drop came amid advance of US Dollar index as Euro and British pound depreciated on news Greece will not receive bailout package until austerity plan will not be legally implemented.
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This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy Bank SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.


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