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Dukascopy Forex Overview: 09-02-2012 - Afternoon

Dukascopy Bank analytic desk report
Published: 09/02/2012 18:02
Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis
ECB president Mario Draghi has been informed that the Greek austerity deal has been reached; meanwhile an official Greek government announcement is expected soon. The news have had a positive impact on European investors' sentiment.

Treasuries climbed higher on Wednesday as investors monitored developments in Greece. Borrowing costs on 10-year bills gave up 1 basis point, reaching 1.97% while those on 5-year bonds traded flat at 0.82%. Yields on 30-year notes dropped 1 basis point, attaining 3.14%, the highest since October 2011.

The Bank of England agreed on further easing measures and ijections of GBP 50B into the british economy. Additionally, BoE decided to maintain interest rates at the current level of 0.5%, where they have stood since 2009.

The official SNB exchange rate for EUR/CHF is 1.2103 today; yield on 10-year Swiss Confederation bonds increased to 0.82%. 3-month LIBOR CHF stands at 0.08%, and is within the target range of 0.00-0.25%. Swiss SMI stock index has gained 0.47% since the opening bell, and is currently fluctuating around 6186 points.

Japan's Nikkei Stock Average trader lower on Thursday as Chinese inflation rate unexpectedly rose 4.5% in January and investors awaited results from Greek debt swap talks. Nikkei 225 index slipped 0.14% or 12.34 points at 9,003.25 despite optimistic results from paper industry. Mitsub Paper rallied 10.5% and Nippon Paper gained 5.5% on improved earnings. Auto makers pared gains for the index as Nissan Motors declined 1% and Suzuki Motors dropped 0.8%.
Dukascopy Technical Analysis
Daily maximum: 1.3321
Daily minimum: 1.3226
EUR/USD has bounced off a cluster of resistances at 1.3249 (daily pivot point and 55 day may) and then stalled near an uptrend at 1.3361. These levels should be able to constrain the pair for today. Daily Resistance: 1.3285; 1.3323; 1.3359. Daily Support: 1.3211; 1.3175; 1.3137. Daily Bias: Bullish.

Daily maximum: 102.91
Daily minimum: 101.96
EUR/JPY has already gained 78 pips and is still advancing. After overcoming an initial resistance at 102.85 the pair is likely to target 103.26 next. Supports are located at 102.47 and 102.06/01. Daily Resistance: 102.47; 102.85; 103.26. Daily Support: 101.68; 101.27; 100.89. Daily Bias: Strongly Bullish.

Daily maximum: 1.5884
Daily minimum: 1.5791
The Cable did not manage to gain a foothold above 1.5854 and is now headed toward today's open price at 1.5803, which is also a 200 day ma. Although at first GBP/USD will encounter a support at 1.5828 (100 day ma). Daily Resistance: 1.5892; 1.5977; 1.6026. Daily Support: 1.5759; 1.5709; 1.5625. Daily Bias: Neutral.

Daily maximum: 77.35
Daily minimum: 77.04
Even though USD/JPY was directionless in the morning, bullish momentum started to strengthen in the afternoon. The pair is now facing a formidable resistance area - 77.38/46. A daily close above it would pave a way to higher levels, such as 77.74 and 78.22. Daily Resistance: 77.26; 77.46; 77.74. Daily Support: 76.78; 76.50; 76.30. Daily Bias: Bullish.

Daily maximum: 0.9146
Daily minimum: 0.9088
USD/CHF has made several attempts to break through a resistance at 0.9133 (55 day ma), however, all of them failed, increasing downside risk.  Daily Resistance: 0.9154; 0.9175; 0.9199. Daily Support: 0.9109; 0.9085; 0.9063. Daily Bias: Strongly Bearish.
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Expert Commentary
"Undoubtedly, the data on US economy has been recently very good. We are witnessing some upside surprises from data globally, not only in the US. We consider there is a positive momentum that will continue for a bit longer"
RBS: USD/CAD at 98,EUR/USD at 1.35, GBP/USD at 1.62 by Dec 2012. >>

"Germany has lost patience and there is a high probability that Greece will not receive further support"
METZLER on European debt crisis: Greece, Italy, Germanyv and the Euro. >>

"Currently we have a slightly negative outlook on the Scandinavian currencies due to their apparent economic exposure to the Euro zone debt crisis and the ongoing uncertainty over the resolution of the economic doldrums"
Press Review
Greeks strike bailout deal in time for EU meeting
Greek leaders clinched a long-stalled deal on reforms and austerity measures needed to secure a bailout and avoid a messy default, government sources said, hours before the country's financial backers were to meet in Brussels on Thursday.

Jobless claims in U.S. drop 15,000 to 358,000
The number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits fell again last week, the government said Thursday, supplying further proof that the U.S. labor market continues to mend.

Asia & Pacific
Japan Machine Orders Fall More-Than-Estimated 7.1% as Yen Climbs
Japan’s machinery orders fell at the fastest pace in three months in December as a faltering global economy and gains by the yen dimmed the outlook for exporters.
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Market Research
Currency Index & Volatility
For the period from Feb 1 to Feb 6 all the observed currencies including the American Dollar were stable, since their respective currency indices did not deviate by more than a per cent despite elevated volatility. Tuesday, however, stands out from the overall picture, bringing in significant changes to the market.
Dukascopy Bank Sentiment Index
Current and six-month global economic outlook improved modestly by 0.03 to 0.46 in January from December, according to a poll conducted by the Dukascopy Bank SA. Three-year global economic outlook remains fairly positive with a mean value of 0.64, up 0.01 from December.
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Global Stock Market Review
S&P 500 index managed to end higher on Wednesday despite stalled Greek debt talks. S&P main index climbed 0.22% or 2.91 points and closed at 1,349.96.

Dow Jones Industrial Average
Dow Jones Industrial Average Index traded close to flat on Wednesday, supported on the positive side by Bank of America which surged 3.6% and technology stocks.

FTSE 100
UK FTSE 100 Index climbed 0.5% on Thursday, lifted by financial and oil shares. Lloyds Banking Group PLC gained 2% and Royal Bank of Scotland Group PLC soared 1.3%.
Commodity Overview
Precious Metals
On the concerns over the Greek debt resolution, the precious metals have been quite volatile. Currently there is a tight corridor for platinum which has added to gains the most on Wednesday on the European debt crisis optimism.
Industrial Metals
Nickel prices pulled back by 1.38% at LME and dropped by 0.52% at MCX. Following the closure of 5 nickel mines operations at Sudbury the supply constraints intensified. Nevertheless, the nickel prices might recover owing to an optimistic forecast from Toyota coupled with the augmenting supply disruptions.
Crude oil futures kept upward movement on Wednesday on the apparent hopes for Greek receiving the second rescue package. A new weakness in the US Dollar gave additional boost to the crude prices.
Wheat prices fell by 0.41% as soon as the Yen surged to a record high level against the US Dollar. Japan imports nearly 90% of the wheat it produces and is the second bigger importer in Asia
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This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy Bank SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.


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