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Dukascopy Forex Overview: 06-08-2012 - Morning

Dukascopy Bank analytic desk report
Published: 06/08/2012 10:08
Dukascopy Forex Community TV
Today
 
12:00 GMT Daily Webinar. >> 
1. Special Guest Marc Spaelti, Dukascopy Vice President and Chief Operational Officer
2. Press Review with Navjeet Grewal
3. This week’s calendar events
4. New Zealand Macroeconomic Performance & NZD/USD
5. Technical Analysis
6. Trade Pattern Idea
7. Market Research EUR

14:00 GMT Community Member Webinar. >>
Webinar by community member OneGoodTrade (1st place Trader’s Contest Winner) discussing managing fear and greed, the difference between success and failure. The webinar will cover the importance of emotional state for trading decisions, the impact of fear and greed on trading, common psychological traps for traders and much more!

Dukascopy Technical Analysis
EUR/USD
"Risk markets are at very key levels of resistance at the moment and if they can be hurdled, then that would be evidence of the market’s good sentiment for riskier assets."
- Rochford Capital (based on Bloomberg)
EUR/USD still preserves some bullish momentum since Friday, as suggested by technical indicators on a daily timeframe. However, it is expected to wane afterwards, since resistance at 1.2410/40 is already proving the present rally of the pair to be fragile. Further appreciation of the Euro will encounter levels at 1.2535 and 1.2633/44, while dips will be limited by supports at 1.2337/34 and 1.2252/26.
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Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis
EUR
"Further weakness [in the retail sector] looks likely during the third quarter."
- Markit
The Eurozone retail sector growth slowed in June as consumers cut spending amid the economic slump. Sales rose 0.1 per cent, after adding 0.8 per cent in May, said the European Union’s statistics office on Friday.
Expert Commentary
"The Yen appears to be overvalued, possibly even more than moderately."
The IMF said that the Yen is “moderately overvalued”. Would you agree?
Yes, I would agree. The Yen appears to be overvalued, possibly even more than moderately. >>
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Press Review
Europe
Monti of Italy Warns That Currency Crisis Risks Europe’s Future
Disagreements within the 17-nation euro area are undermining the future of the European Union, said Italy’s Prime Minister Mario Monti as the stand-off on European Central Bank support for Italian and Spanish debt hardened.
Market Research
Currency Index & Volatility: GBP
While data available last Friday was unable to determine propensity of the British Pound, ever-worsening statistics of the EZ economy along the passage of the current week and increase of probability of contagion forced investors to decrease exposure to the Sterling, which lost 1.3% on average relatively to a basket of the observed currencies over the last five trading days as a result.
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Dukascopy Bank Sentiment Index
Current global economic outlook
The current global economic sentiment index declined by 0.04 points to 0.43 in June, while the three-year economic outlook improved to 0.66 from 0.65 in May. The six-month economic sentiment index was unchanged from the prior month at 0.48 points.
Global Stock Market Review
Dow Jones Industrial Average
US blue chips index ended Thursday in red territory as the ECB decision not to loosen its policy at the moment disappointed market players.
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Commodity Overview
Precious Metals
Precious metals prolonged slump on Thursday on broadly stronger US Dollar and weak global equities. Moreover, investors started to reduce their holdings in precious metals after the ECB refrained from additional easing measures at the moment.
Trade Pattern Idea
USD/JPY Emerging Pattern: Broadening Wedge
USD/JPY is starting to appreciate and increase its volatility, and has formed an Ascending Broadening Wedge pattern on the 1H chart. The pattern has 43% quality and 100% magnitude in the 61-bar period. >>

Weekly USD/CAD Emerging Pattern: Channel Down
USD/CAD has started to slowly devalue and formed a Channel Down pattern on the 1D chart. The pattern has 57% quality and 86% magnitude in the 190-bar period. >>
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Economic Research

Business Cycle: The U.S. Equities
The Dukascopy Bank research department presents the first part of the research on assets performance within a business cycle. The research gives investors an opportunity to estimate the behaviour of several asset classes under changing economic conditions. 
Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator
Dukascopy Bank presents a new research product - the aggregate technical indicator. The new tool will indicate the strongest signals on major currency pairs. Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator for 30 min, 1H, 4H and 1D time frame charts for major pairs for the last 144 periods till 07:00 GMT
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Disclaimer:
This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy Bank SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.

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