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Dukascopy Forex Overview: 04-05-2012 - Afternoon

Dukascopy Bank analytic desk report
Published: 04/05/2012 18:03
Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis
German DAX index edged lower on Friday as investors awaited for US jobs data amid dropping commodity prices. Moreover European investors stayed cautious ahead of elections in Germany, Italy, France and Greece this weekend. At the moment of writing DAX index is 0.53% or 36.65 points down at 6,657.64.

Crude oil futures moved higher during Asian session on Friday amid broadly weaker US Dollar. The greenback's index that measures its performance against six main currencies declined by 0.05% to 79.24 US Dollars. Meanwhile, light, sweet crude oil futures for delivery in June traded at 102.67 Us Dollars per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, advancing by 0.13%.

Royal Bank of Scotland Group said on Friday its loss for the first three months of 2012 advanced, citing slowdown and tougher regulations. RBS loss for the first quarter reached to GBP 1.52 billion (USD 2.46 billion) compared to a GBP 528 million shortfall in similar period last year. RBS also said it will repay next week the last portion of government support. RBS shares jumped 3.2% on Friday.

Asian stocks dropped on Friday, following a sharp decline in energy prices. Moreover investors awaited the US non-farm payroll data. South Korea's Kospi lost 0.3%, while Australian S&P/ASX 200 and Hang Seng indices each shed 0.8%. Shanghai Composite Index managed to breach downward trend and climbed 0.5%. Japanese markets remained closed for holidays.

The official SNB exchange rate for EUR/CHF is 1.2012 today; yield on 10-year Swiss Confederation bonds decreased to 0.69%. 3-month LIBOR CHF stands at 0.11%, and is within the target range of 0.00-0.25%. Swiss SMI stock index has lost 0.25% since the opening bell, and is currently fluctuating around 6084 points.
Dukascopy Technical Analysis
Daily maximum: 1.3179
Daily minimum: 1.3069
EUR/USD advanced today further, breaching the daily forecast mean at 1.3144 as the US economy added only 115K jobs in the non-farm sector, beating analysts' estimate of 173K. Daily Resistance: 1.3189; 1.3228; 1.3275. Daily Support: 1.3103; 1.3056; 1.3017. Daily Bias: Bullish.

Daily maximum: 106.12
Daily minimum: 105.32
EUR/JPY fell today after the publication of the Eurozone final services PMI, which fell more than forecast (46.9 act./47.9 est.). Daily Resistance: 105.95; 106.45; 106.77. Daily Support: 105.13; 104.81; 104.31. Daily Bias: Bearish.

Daily maximum: 1.6194
Daily minimum: 1.6160
The British pound braced lossess today after Halifax monthly HPI showed the UK home prices fell more than anticipated (-2.4% act./-0.4 est.), indicating weak condition of the UK property market. Daily Resistance: 1.6208; 1.6240; 1.6264. Daily Support: 1.6152; 1.6128; 1.6096. Daily Bias: Neutral.

Daily maximum: 80.54
Daily minimum: 80.11
USD/JPY traded in a flat trend after the release of US macroeconomic data showed a mixed stance of the US economy: the unemployment rate fell to 8.1% (8.2% est.), while non-farm employment change rose less than expected (115K act./173K est.). Daily Resistance: 80.46; 80.73; 80.92. Daily Support: 80.00; 79.81; 79.54. Daily Bias: Strongly bearish.

Daily maximum: 0.9173
Daily minimum: 0.9115
The American Dollar traded flat against the Swiss Franc today as the US economy data cast uncertainty over the general US macroeconomic stance. Daily Resistance: 0.9167; 0.9199; 0.9226. Daily Support: 0.9108; 0.9081; 0.9049. Daily Bias: Bullish.
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Expert Commentary
"Our second quarter forecast for EUR/USD is 1.26"
Carl Hammer, Chief FX Strategist at SEB, shared his view on the Euro performance and its potential direction in the observable future>>

"We expect the US Dollar to come under pressure in the month ahead"
John Horner, FX Strategist at Deutsche Bank, on the US Dollar>>

"I think it is a very respectable performance"
Robert Rennie, Chief Currency Strategist at Westpac, provided his insight on the latest stance of the Aussie Dollar>>
Press Review
Misery builds for the euro zone
The euro zone economy worsened markedly in April, according to business surveys that clashed with the prospect of a gradual recovery augured by European Central Bank President Mario Draghi this week.

Employers in U.S. Added Fewer Jobs Than Forecast in April
American employers added fewer workers than forecast in April and the jobless rate unexpectedly fell as people left the labor force, adding to concern the economic expansion is cooling.

Asia & Pacific
Hugh Hendry Predicts Crisis Will Spread to Asia
Hugh Hendry, one of the hedge fund industry's most outspoken managers, has warned that the economic crisis is headed for Asia, with the region's largest economy, China, struggling under a bursting property bubble and tumbling demand for its exports.
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Market Research
Currency Index & Volatility
Despite major obstacles the British Pound continues to outperform and appreciate relative to most of its counterparts. On average the price of the Sterling increased by 0.5% across the board from Apr 20 to Apr 26, as demonstrated by its currency index.
Dukascopy Bank Sentiment Index
The current global economic outlook improved for a third straight month in March, while the six-month economic outlook stagnated at 0.52. Current economic expectations advanced to 0.50, up by 0.02 points from the previous month. The three-year economic outlook improved to 0.67 from 0.66 in February.
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Global Stock Market Review
S&P 500 index prolonged losses on Thursday as weaker non-manufacturing PMI data offset gains from better than expected drop in jobless claims. US benchmark index fell 0.77% or 10.74 points and closed at 1,391.57.

Dow Jones Industrial Average
Dow Jones Industrial Average index traded lower on Thursday as US service PMI gauge fell more than expected in April to 53.5. Blue chip index shed 0.47% or 61.98 points and finished at 13,206.59 with basic material and industrial sectors posting the biggest losses.

Hang Seng
Hong Kong’s shares prolonged downward trend on Friday weighed down by energy firms as US oil futures and metal prices tumbled. Asian investors remained cautious ahead of upcoming US nonfarm payroll report. Hang Seng index dropped 0.78% or 164.79 points and settled at 21,084.74 with technology sector fading most.
Commodity Overview
Precious Metals
Precious metals were weak on Thursday amid broadly softer equities and stronger US Dollar. Fading hopes for more accommodative policies from the ECB also pressured the commodity group.
Industrial Metals
Industry metals followed a downward trend on Thursday after pessimistic non-manufacturing PMI releases from the US and China.
Energy markets were mixed after EIA report on the US stockpiles and negative services PMI releases.
Rural commodities rebounded after previous losses as adverse weather in the EU planting regions is likely to increase demand for US supplies. 
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Trade Pattern Idea
Emerging Pattern: AUD/CHF
AUD/CHF approached the support level at 0.9313, forming a falling wedge pattern on the 4H chart. The formation has 61% quality along with 50% magnitude in a 77-bar period.
Economic Research
Commodity currency: Norwegian Krone
The Dukascopy Bank research department presents the final part of its research on commodity currencies. In the current issue we consider commodity sectors’ influence on Norwegian krone exchange rates. Norway is the second largest non-OPEC oil exporter, and energy products make up more than 50% of its exports. It gives us an opportunity to establish whether the exports’ share can be named as one of the relationship-defining factors.
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This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy Bank SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.


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